The Analysis On Agriculture’s Risk Management In China

With the speeding up of the marketization and internationalization, our country has emerged in the process of agricultural production and operation risk is more and more is becoming more and more complex, in order to promote the agricultural development of our country peasant household income stable, it’s extremely important to reasonable agricultural risk aversion. Of agricultural risk management, the first to have a set of effective and continuous risk management system, at present our country agricultural risk management has made certain achievements, but in terms of perfect risk management system construction compared with developed countries there is still a big gap between the, some problems such as low efficiency of management and resource waste. In this case, analyze the current situation of the agricultural risk management system in our country and on the basis of perfect risk management system is proposed to stabilize the agricultural development of our country is of great significance to increase farmers income.Defects based on the economics of information theory, government intervention theory and market division of labor theory, combining with the knowledge of management science, statistics, etc as the main tool of analysis, according to ask questions-analysis problem-to solve the problem in the research and analysis, on the basis of domestic and foreign research results with the field of agriculture of our country’s existing risk management present situation has carried on the analysis, and based on the experience of the advanced countries in the agricultural risk management, analyses the functions of different risk management tools, and use the method of field research analyzes the farmers in the aspects of risk identification, risk decision, finally respectively from the macro and micro level to build and perfect the agricultural risk management in China. Specifically, the main research contents are the following several parts:The first part is the research basis, including chapter1and2. Chapter1in combination with the importance of agricultural development and agricultural risks in the process of put forward the research background, research significance is expounded. Combined with the current research status and research progress both at home and abroad, this paper expounds the research content and the innovation and inadequate. Chapter2is the theoretical basis, from the basic theory of agricultural risk in agricultural risk management, this paper starting from the definition and characteristics of risk, this paper introduces the features and classification of risk classification, and agricultural risk, at the same time, from the Angle of information defect theory and the theory of market intervention, expounds the importance of agricultural risk management and the foothold, finally from the perspective of the theory proved that the main body of agricultural risk management is a farmer.The second part introduce experience, including3and chapter4. Chapter3mainly analyzes the experience of agricultural risk management system in our country, from the Angle of historical development, this paper expounds the evolution of China’s agricultural risk management system, the historical development of the status quo, and mainly from the Angle of the temperature of agricultural risk management system of our country’s existing performance evaluation. Chapter4mainly analyses the agricultural risk management represented by the United States and Japan the practice of developed countries, focusing on the national agricultural policy, the practice of agricultural insurance and agricultural futures, and examined from the perspective of risk management system construction of the practice of these countries for our reference.The third part is the empirical research, including chapter5and chapter6. We put the agricultural risk is divided into the natural risk and market risk, when the empirical also is give priority to avoid the risk of different business rules, analyzes the agricultural insurance and reinsurance, weather derivatives and futures in agriculture as the role of risk management of agricultural products. To the agricultural insurance first using economic analysis method, then in our country agricultural insurance company, for example simulation analysis of the standard of agricultural reinsurance in China may apply; On the analysis of weather derivatives mainly adopts the analysis methods of economics, because the development of weather derivatives for China is largely at the theoretical stage, the analysis of the specific method is the option pricing model, using the perspective of mathematical deduction to analyze the role of weather derivatives in agricultural risk management; The analysis of agricultural futures mainly adopts is the combination of theoretical analysis and economic analysis of the method. Chapter6with the on-the-spot investigation method, and empirical research method to verify the reality and the theory of the role of different risk management tools, this chapter examines the first farmers in our country in the process of agricultural production and management of agricultural risk identification, risk management decision-making, etc, and verified by simulation analysis of methods under different scenarios, the actual effect of agricultural risk management.The fourth part is the policy recommendations, namely chapter7. Build China sound agricultural risk management system needs the joint efforts of all aspects, first of all, given the importance of the agricultural development and the particularity of agricultural risks, the government must actively participate in its risk management work; Secondly, government support and application of risk management tools, the ultimate goal is to enable farmers benefit maximum loss minimum, so need to system construction in the process of establish the principal role of farmers; Third, at present the development of agricultural insurance is not very ideal, and the potential demand of agricultural insurance is huge, need various aspects work together to enhance the role of the agricultural insurance in agricultural risk management; Fourth, weather derivatives by the international experience circumvent the risk of agricultural natural disaster proved to be effective tools, in the development of our country has been in the bud, the need to develop, in response to the gradually diversified agricultural risk. Finally, relatively popular and comparison to other international advanced agricultural risk management tools, we want to absorb the essence of our own attitudes.The fifth part as the research conclusion, that is, chapter8. Conclusion is mainly from the macro level and micro level analysis, the macro level, the risk to agriculture in our country at present give priority to in order to avoid, the lack of agricultural risk management initiative thinking, agricultural risk management system has been constructed in our country at present stage, response to agricultural.risk has have a certain ability, agricultural insurance, and other agricultural market risk management tools have been developed, the present stage also have the requirement of the development of weather derivatives; Micro level, we believe that age, gender, level of education, cultivation, production situation and policy cognitive situation of different for farmers agricultural risk awareness and risk management strategy choice is different. Then, the article from macro level and micro level on the direction of the wind consummates our country agriculture management system work thinking, the macro level, a relevant laws and set up the special agricultural risk management mechanism is the foundation, at the same time to do a good job subsidy policy, encourage the development of agricultural insurance and agricultural product futures market, should establish a perfect agricultural information service system at the same time; Micro level, for farmers to improve their own cultural quality and production skills, attention to agricultural production information, learning to use agricultural risk management tools, combined with its proper planning of their own agricultural production behavior and risk management behavior.The innovation of this article is mainly manifested in the following three aspects:1. The all-round carding for China’s agricultural risk management system, and proposes to build a play to farmers as the main body in the risk management function, and led by the government to run an effective risk management system and sustainable agriculture. Effectively guard against and dissolve the agricultural risk must have perfect agricultural risk management system, this paper analyzed from the Angle of theory elements required of perfect risk management system, secondly, from the Angle of history, this paper expounds the current situation of the construction of agricultural risk management system, and finally from the perspective of global foothold of the construction of the agricultural risk management system is analyzed, namely, pay attention to the principal role of farmers, optimization, government policy and effective use of market risk management tools. From the perspective of research, has realized the innovation.2. From the perspective of empirical verification tool for the market in the role of agricultural risk management, and focuses on the principle of weather derivatives and contract design. Under the background of effective policy, give full play to the role of market risk management tools is a necessary choice to perfect the system of the agricultural risk management, this paper analyzes the agricultural insurance, weather derivatives, and the theory of agricultural products futures action and actual effect. If the agricultural production and operation risk can be divided into natural risk and market risk, agricultural insurance can prevent natural risks, agricultural products futures can prevent market risks, and study of these two kinds of risk management tools is also the most. However, agricultural insurance and agricultural products futures, focus on the risk of small and large agricultural risk, the probability of those farmers are less likely to more focus on the probability of large losses of agricultural risks, only weather derivatives can effectively guard against, but the current domestic analysis of weather derivatives is only based on simple introduction, from the perspective of theory and practice, this paper use the method of empirical analysis to verify the weather derivatives in the role of the agricultural risk management, and analyzed the product design process of weather derivatives, implements the research content of innovation.3. Use the method of field investigation and simulation analysis, determines the existing agricultural risk management system in our country the risk management strategy that can enable farmers benefit maximization. Scale production and technical production is the trend of agricultural development in our country, so this article with more prominent feature of scale and technical production of Xinjiang production and construction corps. as the object of on-the-spot investigation, the risk awareness of local farmers for the management decision-making, risk identification, risk analysis, and USES the current relatively popular MOTD A model to analyze the area the income of farmers under different risk management strategy, finally determined the can enable farmers benefit maximization of portfolio risk management strategy. In addition, through the analysis of international experiences, we find that in the construction of agricultural risk management system, more important is to establish the specialized risk management authority, the significance of reference to the agricultural risk management system construction in China.