A Study On The Investment Decision-making Of Visitor Attractions Under The Uncertainty For Companies

The tourism industry has been developed rapidly in China since the reform and opening. It has become a pillar industry of national economy. At present, the tourism industry is in the upgrading period, and tourism investment is in the peak. Among them, the resource-based visitor attractions have become a hot because of its non-renewable resources, monopolistic operating and its huge market with long-term development. Long cycle, high input and large fluctuation of tourism demand are the characteristics of tourism investment. Companies are facing significant uncertainty and risk when they invest. To ensure the effectiveness of investment, and to promote the tourism industry develop continuously and stably, it is important to study the investment decision-making of visitor attractions under the uncertainty for companies.The Real Options is the forward theory of investment decision-making. It enables companies to make optimal decision by the standardization of thinking uncertainties and the application of option pricing methods. Difference from other projects, there are some issues in the investment of visitor attractions, such as tourism demand is the main factor affecting returns, the operating is vulnerably affected by unexpected events, and more stakeholders are involved. In order to solve these issues, this thesis studies the investment decision-making systematically with the theory of Real Options. The corresponding models are built, numerical analysis is done by using MATLAB software, and the real economic phenomena are explained. It is hoped to explore the rational decision of visitor attractions from a theoretical point, to provide a standardized reference for companies in practice, and to make contribute for the stable development of the tourism industry.Innovations of this thesis are:A.The theory of Real Options is introduced into the area of visitor attractions investment, and the investment decision-making under the uncertainty for companies is studyed systematically. Based on the qualitative analysis of the uncertain factors, this thesis researches the investment decision-making under the uncertainty of tourism demand, the influence of unexpected events and in the games with other stakeholders respectively. The theoretical system of the investment decision-making under the uncertainty is built. It not only enriches the research content of the Real Options Theory, but also expands its scope of application. The researching deficiency of the theory of visitor attractions investment is made up.B.The economic attributes of visitor attractions is re-defined. The standard judgments of public goods are "non-competitive" and " non-exclusive". The re-defining is not only from the standards, but also from linking with a certain organization, its benefit and the institutional arrangements. This laid a theoretical foundation for companies being allowed to invest visitor attractions under the transferring the operating right.C.The model of the optimal investment timing under the uncertainty of tourism demand for companies is built. It based on the Real Options Theory of the optimal investment timing, and is according to the characteristics of visitor attractions investment. That is the ticket price is stable relatively, and the main factor affecting return and profit is tourism demand. And it is in the assumptions of the limited investment period, the number of tourists being obey a Geometric Brownian motion.D.Based on the Real Options Theory of jump diffusion, assuming that the number of tourists is subject to a random variable jump - dispersion process, the investment decision-making model is built under the influence of a single incident. And assuming that the project value is subject to multiple random variables jump - decentralized process, the investment decision-making model is built under the influence of a number of similar incidents. Retaining the assumption of random distribution of the "jump" rate, using the real options pricing model of“jumping”specific distribution being not dependent on, the investment decision-making model is established under the influence of a number of different types of incidents.E.It is involved many more stakeholders in the development of tourism resources. According this, this thesis researches the investment decision-making based on the Real Options theory under incomplete information. Taking the acts of the local government and the residents as a noise respectively and assuming the noise obey the process of mean reversion and geometric Brownian motion relatively; the investment decision-making model for companies in the game with the local government and the model in the game with the residents are built. And the influence of the incomplete information is analyzed. In the traditional investment theory, the interests of each stakeholder are often handled as a social problem qualitatively. It can not be reflected in the economic evaluation quantitatively. This thesis takes it as an uncertain factor in the investment, and introduces it into the decision-making. This makes up the deficiency of the traditional theory.