Research On Risk Assessment And Prevention And Control Of Social Public Opinion In Emergencies

With the rapid development of Internet and new media,after the occurrence of emergencies,the Internet environment often breeds social public opinion risks.Once handled improperly,it is easy to form major public opinion events,which will affect social stability and development.There is a certain law behind the risk of public opinion in the emergency society,forming a "public opinion curve" to a certain extent.The research on the generation,evolution,response status and evaluation of public opinion risk is the key to scientifically study and judge public opinion risk,grasp the key nodes of public opinion and put forward reasonable prevention and control measures.To carry out the research on risk assessment and prevention and control of public opinion in emergencies is conducive to avoiding the expansion,transformation and derivation of public opinion,winning the opportunity of public opinion turning into positive public opinion,and improving the ability to respond to public crisis.This research has a very important practical significance.It is not only the era mission to create a clear network space,but also the inevitable requirement to promote the modernization of governance system and governance ability.This paper takes crisis management,risk society,public opinion dissemination and public governance as the main theoretical basis,literature research,case illustration,comparative research and analytic hierarchy process as the main research methods,combines theoretical research and empirical analysis,highlights the problem direction,and follows the principle of "emergency public opinion risk response status-emergency public opinion risk generation-emergency public opinion risk generation The evolution of public opinion risk in emergency-public opinion risk assessment in emergency-public opinion risk prevention and control measures in emergency " is studied.In terms of the current situation of public opinion response,this paper selects a wealth of data and cases,and discusses some preliminary results achieved in the practice of response to social public opinion risk in emergencies in China,including the significant performance of public opinion risk prevention and control awareness,institutions,laws,technology and experience,However,due to the relative lag of public opinion risk prevention and control concept,weak public opinion risk monitoring ability,imperfect public opinion risk prevention and control system,and relatively insufficient public opinion risk responsibility management,there are still outstanding problems in the supervision and control of public opinion risk prevention and control,public opinion information communication,public opinion emergency disposal and public opinion aftermath work,and the public opinion response is still relatively strict Precipitous.In the aspect of public opinion risk generation,the most direct cause of risk generation is related to the damage state of the emergency itself and the unique behaviors of different subjects.At the same time,it focuses on the analysis of the impact of multiple factors on the generation of social public opinion risk.In the evolution of public opinion,based on the life cycle theory and the research of related scholars,the risk of public opinion is divided into four main stages.Secondly,in the evolution of public opinion risk,it focuses on the analysis of the development trend and performance characteristics of public opinion risk in the stages of latent,diffusion,upsurge and recession.Finally,this paper discusses the typical effects of the evolution of public opinion,and makes a further analysis of the evolution of public opinion risk by using the case of Changsheng in Changchun.It is believed that although the risk has uncertainty,there are certain rules to follow.If we can grasp the evolution rules,we can better prevent the public opinion risk.In the aspect of public opinion evaluation,the value orientation of public opinion risk evaluation is analyzed based on the risk characteristics,and it is considered that strengthening the risk management of public opinion in emergencies is an urgent need to deal with social public opinion and network risk.Secondly,on the basis of the research on the generation,evolution and response status of public opinion risk,a set of reasonable public opinion risk index system is constructed through questionnaire survey and expert talks.Finally,the ABC classification method is used to determine the degree of public opinion risk and early warning level,and the feasibility of the index system is demonstrated by actual cases,and the conclusion of social public opinion risk assessment is drawn.In terms of public opinion risk prevention and control measures,the following targeted suggestions are put forward: to enhance the risk management ability as the goal,to enhance the awareness of public opinion risk prevention and control;to strengthen risk monitoring and early warning as the means,to optimize the public opinion risk prevention and control mechanism;to improve the public opinion information release as the hub,to build the public opinion risk prevention and control platform;to break through the use of core data as the help,to improve the public opinion risk prevention and control technology On the basis of enriching Internet public opinion laws,we should ensure the safety of public opinion risk prevention and control.The main innovations of this paper include the following aspects: first,the generation and evolution of public opinion risk in emergencies is a complete dynamic change process.By analyzing the characteristics of emergencies,the characteristics of participants,the psychological behavior of Internet users,and the mutation effect,butterfly effect,snowball effect and long tail effect of public opinion risk evolution,this paper reveals the generation conditions and internal performance of social public opinion The law enriches and deepens the theoretical research system of public opinion risk in emergency,which has certain innovation.Second,through questionnaire survey and expert meeting,establish indicators of social public opinion risk assessment of emergencies,give weight to each element,calculate scores of public opinion risk cases,determine the early warning level of public opinion risk,and build ABC based Through empirical research,this process is feasible and original.Third,on the basis of research on the current situation,generation,evolution and evaluation of social public opinion risk in emergencies,this paper proposes a set of operable awareness,mechanism,technology,platform and system of social public opinion governance from the aspects of improving governance capacity,strengthening monitoring and early warning,improving information release,using data technology,and improving legal system,so as to realize public management,news and so on The interdisciplinary integration of communication,sociology and disaster science has certain innovation.