The Research On Urban Population Risk And Its Prevention

The interaction between the internal elements of the population and the external system risk gestated and accumulated by the paradoxical movement between it and the external system is always a reality that cannot be avoided in the process of urban development,which also constitutes an important restrictive factor for the long-term sustainable development of the city.At present,China's first-tier cities,such as Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou,become starters by virtue of the effects of multiple factors,including the development foundation,locational conditions,resource endowments and policy bias.However,under the rapid development background,the first-tier cities have also experienced a large-scale rapid agglomeration in the past thirty years,urban population's contradictions with resources and environment as well as economic and social development are increasingly intensified,urban population risk accumulated in the early time has been transformed and induced a number of prominent urban problems,and the solutions of these problems also directly impact on whether the future development of the city will face greater risk or not.It can be said that the solution of the prominent urban population problem and the resolution of the potential urban population risk are considerable tasks China is facing in urbanization accelerating period.For those cities which have developed relatively late but have great potential,we must also take the urban population risk and its prevention problems in the urban agglomeration process of current and future population into account,so as to prevent crises before they emerge.In the context of urbanization acceleration and national industries transfer,more and more domestic cities have ushered in important development opportunities,and their resource agglomeration capacity and agglomeration effect are bound to be further strengthened.At the same time,this scale agglomeration led by new type industrialization and urbanization also will generate the rapid expansion of urban population,resulting in great pressure on urban traffic,medical treatment and public health,education,employment and resources and environment,thereby hidden dangers of urban population risk will be further revealed.In the new development situation and development concept,it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive study on the urban population risk in the acceleration process of future urban agglomeration under the guidance of a large population view,which not only is a beneficial academic activity that riches population research field,switches research perspective and the flexibly applies research methods,but also makes some research reference for the relevant departments to strengthen the risk control by taking the necessary measures.Through the literature review,we can see that there are relatively few systematic studies on the urban population risk and its prevention at home and abroad.In the related researches closely associated with the paper,the foreign researches lay particular emphasis on the basic theory and empirical research of urban development problem,while the domestic researches basically follow the themes on the basis of population development principal line.Although there are researches targeted to regional or urban population risk management,they mostly are confined to the qualitative description and analysis level,the empirical research on urban population risk prevention is relatively weak.In conclusion,the theoretical and applied research on population security,population balanced development and risk society at home and abroad not only can provide an effective perspective for the paper,but also can lay the theoretical foundation and experience reference of the study,and the empirical evaluation study on the corresponding population security and population balanced development also has some reference value in the construction of the analytical model and the research method of this paper.On the basis of this,the paper defines the core concept of "urban population risk" as the possibility that the urban population development itself and its balanced development with economic society and resource environment deviate from the expected targets,which can be divided into internal(within the system)risk and external(between the systems)risk;internal risk refers to the risk existed in urban population system caused by accelerated urban population agglomeration;external risk refers to the risk generated in the matching process of the internal elements of the urban population with the external system in the context of accelerated urban population agglomeration.The paper follows the basic thoughts of this kind of applied research,namely,"theory and reality guidance-raise questions-problems analysis-policy suggestion".It first summarizes the relevant literature researches on urban population risk,clarifies the concepts and terms of population problem,population security,population risk and so on,and through the experiences of population security theory,population balanced development theory and risk society theory to explain the theoretical basis of the paper,puts forward the theoretical analysis of urban population risk structure;and then it conducts empirical analysis on the typical urban population risk problems through combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,and then further specifically structure the urban population risk early warning index system and applies it,makes the quantitative evaluation and early warning judgment for the urban population risk situation faced by Chengdu in the form of paradigm.Finally,it proposes some suggestions on prevention of population risk.The current population acceleration agglomeration toward the city generates enormous pressure at the same time on the urban infrastructure,resources and environment,public services and other aspects,and triggers a series of urban problems in the first-tier large cities.In the meantime,with the population acceleration agglomeration toward the city,the other cities behind the first-tier cities have encountered different degrees of urban population risk hidden dangers in the process of urban development.Therefore,the paper takes Chengdu as an example to conduct empirical analysis on urban population risk.The results show that: First,the amplification of urban population size is speeded up,population size risk constitutes the primary risk within the population,which also easily lead to the intersystem risk between population and external environment.Second,the urban population's science and cultural quality is relatively low,posing a potential threat to the future urban economic development.Third,the urban population aging is accelerated;aging phenomenon has become increasingly prominent,highlighting the population structural risk.Fourth,the imbalance phenomenon of urban population areal distribution has become increasingly prominent;the population areal distribution risk is being nurtured.Fifth,the pressure of coordinated development between urban population and resources and environment is increasing,which constitutes the most important external population risk.Sixth,other comprehensive urban population risks are objectively existed,which will bring risks on the urban sustainable development.Through the further study of the causes of urban population risk in Chengdu,we can see that urban population risk is essentially caused by the undertreatment between people and nature,people and society,and people and people in the process of urban development.Specifically,the inevitable deepening of urbanization,urban congenital population attraction,Chengdu gradual growing population urban agglomeration are the logical starting points of the urban population risk,and the established resource and environment constraints are the objective basis of the Chengdu urban population risk,the mismatch between the urban planning and management services can exacerbate the Chengdu urban population risk,and the policy risk is an inevitable important factor in the formation process of the Chengdu urban population risk.In order to prevent urban population risk effectively,this paper constructs the urban population risk early warning index system by comprehensively using the methods of analytic hierarchy process,expert opinion method,factor analysis and other methods based on the existing population assessment model and the population risk system analysis,and applies the system in chengdu.First of all,based on the scientificity,objectivity,simplicity and convenience,feasibility and guidance principles,this paper chooses the urban population risk early warning reference index,through the clustering method to determine the internal risk which includes three elements and seven indicators as well as the external risk which includes two elements and five indicators as the core constituent indicators of the urban population risk early warning model.Then,it constructs the urban population risk early warning index system model by determining the weight of 12 indexes system of each factor layer through expert opinion method and factor analysis;subsequently,combined with the domestic and foreign standards,the paper sets out the early warning value standard of urban population risk on the basis of repeatedly consultations of expert opinions and realistic thinking of Chengdu development,and collects the Chengdu 2015's relevant indicators data to apply to the model for conducting risk alarm early warning compound evaluation and risk alarm early warning individual evaluation.The results show that: First,the current urban population and economic society and resource development in Chengdu are generally faced with a large risk alarm,which can be correspondingly defined as second level alarm according to the comprehensive comparison;second,in the population internal system,the alarm situation of each element is mostly in the first level early warning.In the short term,the population risk is greater,population quality and structure risks are relatively small,but in the long term,the urban population size risk is still the main risk Chengdu are facing;thirdly,the manifestation of the element risks in the external population system vary from one to one,population and economic and social element risk is relatively small,population and resource and environment elements show a serious three level warnings risk situation in general,which may not obtain qualitative improvement in the short term.After the empirical analysis of the index system,the paper puts forward the final application conclusion: there were risk alarm emerged in Chengdu at the urban population risk elements level in 2015.Among them,early warnings of population quality risk,population structure risk,and population and economic and social risk obtain second level,early warnings of population size risk and risk of population and resources and environment achieve third level;rise to the system level,risk early warnings of both population internal system and population external system are second level,the final comprehensive judgment defines Chengdu's current urban population risk warning as second level early warning,urban population risk alarm situation is relatively prominent.Broadly speaking,by means of analyzing the application of the urban population early warning index system,the paper finds that the Chengdu's development will encounter different levels of population risk at different element levels in short-term and long-term stages,and the population size is still the main population internal risk Chengdu is facing at present and in the future,and the risk situation between urban population and resources and environment is relatively more prominent.These conclusions and the empirical analysis of the Chengdu population risk have also reached mutual corroboration in the qualitative and quantitative levels.Based on the above analysis,the paper puts forward that it is necessary to formulate and perfect the strategic planning of urban population balanced development,by using macroscopic readjustment and control to adjust the urban population,establish the dynamic mechanism of urban population balanced development,establish and improve the systematic and long-term urban population risk prevention mechanism and response and disposal mechanism at different levels,deepen the urban and rural development mechanism and enhance the synergetic urban and rural development capacity and other countermeasures and suggestions,so as to prevent and digest the urban population risk,promote the new urbanization process,and facilitate the coordinated and sustainable development among urban population and economic society and resource environment.