| Natural rubber is a strategic resource for national economic development,modern industry and national defense construction.The development of natural rubber planting industry is not only related to the national rubber strategic security,but also involves the well-being of more than 500,000 households in the poor areas.In recent years,international rubber futures prices have continued to fall.As of 2018,the rubber revenue of unit area has dropped to one-third of the same period in 2011.Reducing the scale of rubber planting has become an inevitable choice for most farmers.The continuous reduction of domestic rubber production will further aggravate the dependence of China’s rubber imports,and the national rubber safety is under tremendous pressure and challenges.This paper takes the farmers in the main natural rubber producing areas as the research object,based on the actual research data of Xishuangbanna in Yunnan Province,by exploring the rubber path dependence formation mechanism and analyzing the willingness of rubber farmers to plant,the paper provides decision-making guidance for the development of natural rubber industry in rubber adapted District and the selection of farmers in non-rubber adapted areas.The specific research is as follows:(1)The research establishes a rubber path dependent measurement model based on the path dependence theory by summarizing the path locking phenomenon in the main rubber producing area.It applies the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the dependence of rubber path dependence in the study period from 2012 to 2014 and 2014 to 2018.The results showed that there was a downward trend rubber path dependence in the study area.This paper establishes an Tobit regression model about affections if the rubber dependence degree.It is found that the degree of rubber dependence in the first phase of lag and the initial input-output structure of the industry have a positive impact on the degree of path dependence.It manifests itself as a effect of land dependence and self-enhancing path dependence.(2)According to the theory of profit maximization of farmers,combined with the actual conditions of policy constraints and incentives,climate location conditions of the natural rubber industry,the altitude and government subsidies are taken as the main explanatory variables.Based on the two-class variable Logistic regression model,the basic model and cross-term model of the factors affecting the rubber planting willingness of farmers are established.The analysis results show that: the altitude of rubber blocks has a negative impact on farmers’ willingness to rubber rubber and the intersection of altitude and government subsidies has a positive impact on the willingness to reduce the scale of rubber.According to the results of the measurement analysis and the survey statistics,the survey area is divided into the rubber adapted area with altitude <1 000 m and the non-rubber adapted area with altitude >1000m according to the altitude location.(3)Based on the national rubber safety,the serious decline in the income of rubber farmers and the current relevant research literature,this paper proposes that policy measures such as target price subsidies should be implemented in rubber adapted district as soon as possible.Through the establishment of the "subsidy policy-farmer behavior" evolutionary game model,and based on the survey data,it finds that the minimum limit of the target price subsidy is 12.8 yuan / kg.Further sensitivity analysis of the target price subsidy policy found that rubber yield is a sensitive affecting factor of the target price subsidy quota.When the other factors remain unchanged,a 10% increase in rubber yields will reduce the target subsidy price by 25%,and accordingly,thus,it proposes rubber price insurance and other supporting policies.(4)Through the analysis and summary of the status quo of the non-rubber adapted district industry,this paper proposes a logical framework for the evolution of the grassroots “ active government”industrial policy which aims at helping farmers to make industrial choices based on “ the growth identification and facilitation framework ” of the new structural economics.The main framework includes the selection of targets,the precise selection of industries and the development of sound policies.After that,this paper takes the case of Menghan Town,Jinghong County,Xishuangbanna as a research case,and tests the practical application of the logical framework.It provides scientific industrial options for farmers in the non-rubber adapted area of Menghan Town,and provides the grassroots government with policy content and policy to Tobit for industrial decision-making.In general,this article is based on the realization of the sustainable development of farmers’ livelihoods and the security of national rubber strategy.From the four aspects of historical path dependence,realistic decision analysis and industrial policy selection,the research is expected to provide theoretical guidance for the industrial decision-making of farmers in China’s major rubber producing areas. |
