Research Of Reservoirs And Hydropower Stations Optimal Operation And Benefit Evaluation

As one of the most important basis for human survival and development, energy is at stake of national economy and security. Hydropower, which is currently the most massive and technique mature renewable energy, has its unique advantage for its good regulating performance, low running costs and fast load response capability, thus plays an important role in the world of electrical energy pattern. Hydropower potential is abundant in China, which provides vital energy security for economic and social development. Accelerating hydropower development is important measure to increase our supply of clean energy, optimize energy structure, respond to climate change and achieve sustainable development. For the twelfth five year plan period is a critical stage of building our moderately prosperous society, from the characteristics of China's natural resources and energy structure, accelerating hydropower development is not only the only way to achieve the2020non-fossil energy consumption goals, but also important measure to effectively reduce the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP.Reservoir operation plays an important role in reservoir operation and management, which directly affects the overall efficiency of hydropower systems. Reasonable and optimal reservoir operation is able to gain considerable social and economic benefits without increasing any hardware investment, which is a key manner to optimize energy structure and energy conservation. This paper takes implicit stochastic optimization theory as basis, comprehensively researches on the deterministic reservoirs operation model and solution, derivation and optimization of operating rules, hydropower system operation based on operating rules, benefit evaluation and factors assessment. The major achievements are as following:(1) Implicit stochastic optimization theory analysis for hydropower operation. The concept and characteristics of deterministic optimal operation and stochastic optimal operation as well as their differences and relationships. Based on analysis of explicit stochastic optimization and implicit stochastic optimization, this paper reviewed research progress of implicit stochastic optimization theory and its application operating rules derivation. summarized applicable conditions, advantages and disadvantages of various ISO methods.(2) Support Vector Machine research based on grid search and cross validation. The advantages of Support Vector Machine are analyzed with its principle. Considering the parameter sensitivity feature and the model vulnerability caused by small-size training samples, grid search and cross validation mechanisms are established to improve the SVM performance. The effect of improved Support Vector Machine en regression and prediction precision is validated by case study.(3) Hybrid programming simulation platform for reservoirs and hydropower stations based on C++and MATLAB. Considering the difficulties of implicit stochastic optimization implementation in actual operation,and the simulation model complexity of implicit stochastic optimization and diversity in computer implementation languages, this paper takes SVM for example, compiled the operating rules derivation algorithm into dynamic library files, which are then called by reservoir simulation platform to implement real time rolling simulation. Based on case study, the stability and scalability of simulation system of system structure is evaluated.(4) Implicit stochastic optimization of Jinsha mid-downstream twelve cascaded hydropower system and benefit evaluation. Based on the largest hydropower system of China's thirteen hydropower bases, deterministic optimization model with maximum electric production and maximum firm output is established and solved as training samples for ISO. System operating rules is established using improved SVM and simulated during the year1989-2000. Additionally, the system is simulated independently using multiple progressive linear regression and simulated. Three operation results are compared and discussed. According to comparisons on electric production, output process and firm output, the benefit and reliability is assessed comprehensively of simulation results.(5) Factors analysis of ISO model. The influence of cascade scale, inflow forecast error, mdel parameters and decision output of operating rules are analyzed. Based on Jinsha River-middle Yangtze hydropower system, three cases are formed Qi Zong single reservoir, cascade system with twelve reservoirs from Qi Zong to Xiang Jiaba and cascade system with fourteen reservoirs from Qi Zong to Ge Zhouba. By controlling the range of each factor, different scenarios are simulated and evaluated. The effect of each factor revealed by simulation results provides vital reference value for SVM theory improvement and future ISO research.