Research On The Theoretical Model And Reliability Control Method Of Timetable In Bus Network

Bus priority has become the subject of urban traffic development. When urban public transit is developed vigorously, we clearly see that the attractiveness of public transit system is not enough, and the bus share rate remains low, where there is a large gap from the expected value. It is because that the reliability of public transit system has not been fundamentally improved and effective protected. In the bus operating system, the instability of running time and the large gap between timetable and actual preparation make the passengers, bus companies and management with a huge loss. In order to fulfill bus priority policy, it improves the reliability of plan to deal with the uncertain fators and makes the bus running under the plan and the control, to impove the public transit share rate, so we must study the theories, methods and issues of creating bus timetable and its reliability.This dissertation, from the point of spatiotemporal affect factors to reliability bus timetable, uses the optimization theory, reliability theory, complex network theory and time windows theory to study the the theories, methods and issues of creating bus network timetable and its reliability, considering with the characteristics of collaboration dispatching timetable. The main contents of this dissertation are summarized as follows:(1) It analyses the characteristics of bus running time from several angles and methods, which include running periods, vehicles, maximum of on/off passengers, proportion of running time, the overall running time value and its distribution. Some important conclusions are as follows: firstly, the ratio of dwell time to total running time (RDT) is from 20% to 40%. Secondly, the total running time, from originating station to a given bus station, display the Matthew’s phenomenon, which means that the gap between total time with every route is growing when station number is increasing. Thirdly, the total running time with every route and station are normal distribution N (μ,σ2), and so on.(2) Reliability model and control method to bus running time are studied. We propose the new reliability models of bus running time under one bus route or a bus newwork. Then, we propose a flexible redundancy control method with Hub points for the running time reliability. According to the control method, the reliability models of bus running time under route or network to“large interval with all stations”and“large interval with Hub point”are proposed. For the models and control method, we have some simulating test, which include Mattehew phenomenon test, non-parametric test and comparative reliability test.(3) We study the complexity of public transit network by use of complex network theory. From the point of operating of public transit network, we propose two new methods for describing the public transit network and how to determining the Hub points. Then, the empirical analysis proves that Guangzhou public transit network is scale-free network, and some Hub points are listed. We also propose the concept and model of route correlation, then also propose the construction algorithm of Hub point evolution model based on timetable, and finally propose an improved sandpile model to study the influence of operating reliability by cascading failure in public transit network. The results show that whether it is collaboration dispatching or not, once the Hub point is deliberate attacted, the operating relibility of whole public transit network will be greatly affected.(4) We propose two sets of bus timetbable models under regional operation public transit network. The first one is a timetable optimization model for transit network in cooperation and competition, which is considered the time disparity of arriving a same station and gives the same interval for dispatching. The second one is a timetable model for collaboration dispatching with multi routes, which is considered the waiting time (transfer waitting time and non-transfer waitting time) for the passengers and gives the different interval for dispatching. Both of the models can be gave the timetable in Hub point. The second model includes the regional operational idea with combination of multi modes and multi routes. The rusults of example show that these two models can balance the passenger demand and enterprise supply, and minimize the costs of both them.(5) In the last section, we propose a bus timetable reliability bi-level programming model. Firstly, we analyse the inner contact between time window and Hub point timetable. Secondly, we propose the bus timetable reliability bi-level programming model including the time window and Hub point timetable. The lower model is the timetable model for minimum total waitting time of passengers, and the upper model is the reliability model of running time for maximum the reliability. An embedded Particle Swarm Optimization is established to solve the bi-level programming model. Finally, the proposed method and model are applied in the public transit network in Guangzhou University Town. The results show that the timetable with non-equal interval dispatching has better results when the passengers flow change obviously, and the bi-level programming model can provide the timetable with high reliability in origin station and Hub point station for every routes.