The Research Of The Impact Of New Energy Urban Public Traffic On Motor Vehicle Capacity

As the acceleration of city economic development and urbanization,the motor vehicle population within the scope of urban area continues to expand.Take Beijing as an example,it cost Beijing only 6 years for her motor vehicle population growing from4.7 million to 5.7 million.At the same time,the motor vehicle population in Shanghai,Nanjing,Wuhan,Shenzhen,Chongqing and other major cities also increased rapidly.In contrast to the city's growing vehicle population,the urban air quality is deteriorating.And,the air pollution of cities is converting from coal-smoke pollution to the coal-smoke+ tail gas.The threat of complex motor vehicle exhaust pollution to urban residents' health is more serious than traditional coal-smoke pollution.Motor vehicle tail gas pollutant mainly including CO,NOx,non methane hydrocarbon(THC)and other harmful substances(such as lead,derivatives of chlorinated hydrocarbon-photochemical smog,etc.)and inhalable particle pollutants,etc.Each car is like a flowing poison gas factory,easy to cause fatigue,asphyxia and can lead to asthma,heart disease and respiratory diseases,etc.,seriously influence the health of the residents.With the issue of China's air quality standards,the urban air quality secondary standard had set a target for air pollution control.Given the limitations of the secondary air quality standard,this thesis calculated the urban atmospheric environment capacity.The atmospheric environmental capacity is the important indicator to measure atmospheric environmental carrying capacity.Through the atmospheric environmental capacity,to build the connection between the motor vehicle development scale and the atmosphere environment bearing.Under the limit of bearing capacity of urban atmosphere,this thesis calculated the development scale of the motor vehicle.Namely,under the limit of atmosphere environmental capacity,the upper limit of the urban vehicle population.As long as the city's vehicle population is under the cap of limit,the development scale of urban motor vehicle population can't be more than the atmosphere environment bearing capacity,on the contrary,it will be beyond the atmosphere environment bearing capacity.This thesis selected 19 cities as the research objects.Through the comparison of the results of these cities,I found that 17 cities are above the limit.Namely,the development scale of motor vehicle exceeded the carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment.Then,according to the trend of the development of new energy vehicles and some cities' development plan of new energy vehicle,this thesis calculated motor vehicles population after new energy revolution of the buses and taxis.At the same time,this thesis also calculated the number of motor vehicles that can be replaced by the development of urban rail transit;comprehensively speaking,this thesis is the quantitative analysis of the influence of new energy public transportation on motor vehicle population.According to the development trend of motor vehicle population after the new energy revolution in public transport,the 19 cities can be divided into three categories,and studied respectively.And,the relevant policy suggestions of reasonable control of motor vehicle population and control of atmospheric pollution emissions were put forward.The logic structure arrangement of this thesis is as follows:There are 8 chapters in my thesis.Chapter 1 is introduction,including the background and the significance of the topic selection,the research reviews both in domestic and overseas,research methods,train of thought and innovations of this thesis.Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis of the studies in this article,mainly discusses the theory of atmospheric environmental capacity.And the atmospheric environmental capacity that measures the theory of atmospheric environmental carrying capacity,including the theory of atmospheric environmental tolerance,the atmospheric environmental capacity theory,the calculation method of the urban traffic atmospheric environmental capacity.These elements in these theories and the principles are correlated,and gradually progressive,constitute the framework of the basic theory of atmospheric environmental capacity.Chapter 3 is the selection of calculating model of urban atmospheric environment capacity,comparatively analysize the commonly used methods of atmospheric environmental capacity calculation: The relation and difference of box model,A-P model,simulation model and linear programming model,then,select the calculating model which is suitable for the problems discussed in this thesis.Chapter 4,the calculation of urban traffic atmospheric environmental capacity.This chapter takes 4 kinds of air pollutant emission of secondary air quality standards of China as the limit,calculated the urban atmospheric environment capacity of 19 cities in the next decade.Then,according to the classification of the pollution sources,this thesis calculated the 19 cities' urban traffic atmospheric environment capacity.In chapter 5,according to the calculation formula of motor vehicle population in the limit of atmospheric environment,this thesis calculated the 19 cities' ceiling level of motor vehicle population in the future 10 years.Chapter 6 using average annual growth forecast and linear regression prediction to calculate the population of motor vehicle of the 19 cities in the next decade.And according to the development trend of the urban vehicle population,this thesis divided the 19 cities into three categories to analyze and study.Chapter 7,on the basis of motor vehicle population data,calculated the motor vehicle population and ceiling population after new energy revolution of public transportation of each city,and compared and analyzed with previous data.After checking the changes of the three categories of cities,this thesis analyzed the reason of the change of the predicted population and maximum population of urban motor vehicles.According to the different categories of city,this thesis presented concrete path of motor vehicle pollution control.In Chapter 8,based on the data of the upper limit of motor vehicle population and the predicted number of motor vehicles,this thesis studies the sensitivity of the relevant thesis factors on the upper limit and predicted number of motor vehicles during the period of the fourteenth five year plan from 2021 to 2025.In Chapter 9,the research conclusions and simulation control scheme.This chapter summarized the research conclusions,and the simulation control scheme was proposed according to the research conclusions.