Research On The Carbon Emission Effect Of China's Trade Under The Perspective Of Value Chain Fragmentation

With the formation of a new production fragmentation system characterized by value chain fragmentation,huge changes have taken place in the production fragmentation and trade patterns among countries or regions,showing a gradual shift from final product trade to intermediate product trade as well as inter-product trade to intra-product trade.The processing trade is prevalent worldwide.On the one hand,this new mode of production fragmentation has promoted the rapid development of economic globalization and trade,forming a complex global production network.On the other hand,it has also caused the separation of the emission place of CO₂,a country or a region can increase its import consumption and reduce domestic production to achieve the goal of reducing pollution emissions within the country or region.This means that the value chain fragmentation has caused the transfer of carbon emissions among countries or regions,which have a significant impact on the direct carbon emissions of a country or region.The existence of carbon emissions transfer will directly affect the fairness and effectiveness of emission reduction.With the deepening of the value chain fragmentation,it has become more complicated to examine the carbon emission effects of the value chain fragmentation.At present,China has become the world's largest energy consumer and carbon emitter,and is under tremendous pressure from domestic and foreign to reduce emissions.At the same time,it is also the largest trading country,creating an“export miracle”,which has aroused the attention of the international community and believes that China is the biggest“beneficiary”of opening up.Therefore,studying the carbon emission effects of China's participation in the value chain fragmentation helps to assess the impact of carbon emission transfer effects on national or regional carbon emissions.It provides important support for China to balance the economic benefits and environmental costs.Based on this,we conduct a systematic empirical study about the carbon emissions transfer effect of China's participation in the value chain fragmentation by using the Inter-Country and Regional Input-Output(ICIO)model.Firstly,this paper for the first time uses China's inter-regional IO table to study the carbon emission transfer of different trade products among China's regions under the domestic value chain fragmentation from a closed perspective,and explore the impact of different trade products between regions on the national,regional and bilateral carbon emissions.Secondly,we use the global input-output table to construct a relative quantity indicator(carbon emission transfer intensity)to explore the carbon emission efficiency of China's participation in the global value chain fragmentation from an open perspective,and then examine its from the overall,sub-sector,different trade products and bilateral levels.This provides support for weighing the value-added effects and environmental costs.At the same time,we conduct an international comparative analysis on the overall,different trade products and sub-industry levels.Thirdly,we use the embedded country-region input-output(IO)table,which combines the domestic value chains fragmentation with global value chains fragmentation.This paper discusses for the first time the amount of carbon emissions that China's regions in the dual value chain fragmentation should bear under different carbon emission accountability accounting schemes,and conducts a comparative analysis and influencing factors analysis.Finally,this paper investigates the mechanics of different export mode of trade,CO₂ emissions,and export domestic value added in China.It is the first time to identify the emissions efficiency of China's different export mode of trade in the inter-country input-output table(ICIO table)that distinguishes China's mode of trade.And we use Miyazawa technology to estimate the connections between them.The study found that under a closed perspective,during 2002-2010,the CO₂emissions embodied in domestic inter-regional trade shows an upward trend,especially the CO₂ emissions embodied in traditional inter-regional trade has always occupied the main position although it shows a downward trend.The interregional domestic trade activities have led to an increase in national carbon emissions,and PHH has been verified.Among them,the inter-regional final products trade is conducive to reducing national carbon emissions,while the inter-regional trade in three intermediate products has increased national carbon emissions.From the positive the balance of avoided carbon emissions(BAC)related to domestic value chain trade,it can be seen that the domestic value chain is polluting and it increases national carbon emissions.The participation of domestic trade activities in the central region,the northwest region and the northern coast is not conducive to reducing the regional direct carbon emissions and national carbon emissions,while the southern coastal and northeastern regions both reduce the regional direct carbon emissions and the national carbon emissions.From the perspective of influencing factors,the effect of carbon emission intensity across various regions and the scale effect of inter-regional final product trade are the most important factors leading to the decline of the BAC,while the scale effect of the other three intermediate products trade models is the most important factor causing its rise.Under an open perspective,from 1995 to 2017,on the whole,China's export CO₂emission transfer intensity is higher than China's import CO₂ emission transfer intensity.This indicates that China's CO₂ emission efficiency is lower than the overall level of foreign CO₂ emissions efficiency.However,the intensity of China's export of CO₂ emissions has shown a significant downward trend,especially after 2008,it is only 1.38 times the China's import CO₂ emission transfer intensity in 2017.No matter which trade products,China's export CO₂ emission intensity is higher than the import CO₂ emission intensity.From a sectorial analysis,it is found that China's transfer-in and transfer-out of CO₂ emissions are mainly through capital-intensive services and capital-intensive manufacturing,while the value-added are mainly through knowledge-intensive manufacturing.The overall foreign trade environmental efficiency is relatively high,but the environmental efficiency of labor-intensive manufacturing has been lower than that of Chinese domestic since 2006.In addition,this paper also find that China's CO₂ emission transfer intensity is much higher than that of major advanced economies(such as G7),which means that China's exports environmental efficiency is much lower than developed economies.Moreover,China's export environmental efficiency is even lower than some developing countries,such as Brazil,Mexico,Korea and Indonesia.Under the dual value chain fragmentation framework perspective,China's overall production-side emissions are significantly higher than consumption-side emissions,and consumption-side emissions are higher than income-sharing emissions.However,China and China's various regions with different carbon emission accountability have shown rapid growth.The comparison results show that,according to the principle of revenue sharing,China's carbon emission reduction amount should be about 30%of China's direct emissions amount.From the perspective of the influencing factors of the carbon emission responsibility,the scale effect of the final demand is the most important factor that prompts China and China's various regions to bear the increase of carbon emissions,and the carbon emission intensity effect of each country and region is the most important factor that promotes its decline.The domestic value chain effect and the product structure effect of domestic and international final demand are the main factors that promote the reduction of carbon emissions on the production side and revenue sharing side.From the perspective of the CO₂ emission efficiency of the trade pattern,the CO₂emission efficiency of China's general trade exports has gradually increased,and has been higher than that of processing trade exports since 2005;the CO₂ emission efficiency of China's capital-intensive manufacturing under different trade mode is far lower than that of labor and knowledge-intensive manufacturing;the CO₂ emission efficiency of China's exports to the BRIC countries and developing countries are lower than that to the EU and G7.From the perspective of multiplier calculations,major economies have far less impact on China's economy and CO₂ emissions through processing trade than general trade.From the perspective of multiplier decomposition,the intermediate input structure technology of China and major economies has not been improved.At the same time,we find that the internal propagation CO₂ multiplier of major economies to China's general trade is significantly greater than China's internal propagation CO₂ multiplier to them.This means that China's general trade should pay more attention to pollution activities and these major economies are just the opposite.Regardless of whether it is processing trade or general trade,the proportion of the external propagation CO₂multiplier and value-added multiplier between China and major economies shows an upward trend.This shows that the proportion of intermediate goods trade with more than two cross-border has risen.The above research conclusion has important policy implications for exploring the relationship between trade,environment and added value,promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,and realizing the increase of trade value.