Research On The Co-Benefit Of Vehicle Emission Control On Air Pollutant And Greenhouse Gas

With the rapid development of China's social economy and the continuous promotion of the process of urbanization,the number of motor vehicles has always been in a trend of rapid growth.By 2018,China has become the largest country in motor vehicle production and sales in the world for ten consecutive years,and the mobile emission of motor vehicles has become an important source of air pollutants and greenhouse gases.Under the dual pressure of environmental pollution and climate change,since 2013,China has successively implemented a series of measures,such as upgrading motor vehicle emission standards,accelerating the phase-out of high-emission vehicles,improving fuel economy,developing new and alternative energy vehicles,and optimizing public transport planning and layout.As one of the municipalities directly under the Central Government in China,Tianjin has more than 3 million motor vehicles,ranking among the top 10 among 66 cities in China,so it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study and analyze the implementation path and emission reduction effect of motor vehicle emission control measures in Tianjin,especially for the synergistic control effect of air pollutants and greenhouse gases.This paper takes the motor emission control policy in Tianjin as the research object,based on the local vehicle ownership,activity level,emission factors,environmental indicators,road distribution and other data,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the single emission reduction effect and synergistic emission reduction effect of motor vehicle emission control measures from the point of view of the city.The main research contents and innovations are as follows:(1)The counterfactual analysis method of panel data based on machine learning is used to study the effect of the improvement of motor vehicle emission standards on the reduction of motor vehicle pollutants.Through the construction of regression synthesis model,Tianjin is taken as the individual of the intervention group,and the machine learning LASSO method is introduced to select the individuals of the control group from cities across the country to construct counterfactual results,so as to estimate the emission reduction effect of raising vehicle emission standards on air pollutants.The results show that the implementation of national V standard helps to reduce the concentration of carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide in the atmosphere,but has no obvious effect on the treatment of pollutants such as pulmonary particulate matter and respirable particulate matter.Therefore,while further controlling the emission standards of motor vehicle pollutants,we should cooperate with other control policies to control air quality.(2)In this paper,on the basis of IPCC2006 carbon emission model,the carbon dioxide emission factor of the original model is modified to fuel carbon content coefficient,which makes the model more general.The results show that the current vehicle control policy has no significant effect on CO2 emission reduction.In the future,with the phasing out of old vehicles,the CO2 emission reduction effect of improving fuel economy will gradually increase,and is expected to reach 15%by 2030.In addition,the"double limit" policy and the promotion of new energy vehicles are also effective ways to reduce vehicle carbon dioxide emissions.(3)Finally,a vehicle emission inventory based on multi-scenario model is constructed to explore the synergistic effect of vehicle emission control measures on pollutant and greenhouse gas emission reduction.In this study,taking 2016 as the base year,the emission inventory of motor vehicles in Tianjin from 2017 to 2030 is estimated,and the elastic coefficient method is used to compare the co-benefit of single emission reduction measures,structural measures and comprehensive measures on air pollutants and greenhouse gases.The results show that the greenhouse gas emission reduction effect of single emission reduction measures such as raising vehicle emission standards and promoting new energy vehicles is higher than that of air pollutants.the control of motor vehicle ownership,the implementation of traffic control and other single emission reduction measures,as well as structural measures and comprehensive measures are better for the reduction of air pollutants.Therefore,considering comprehensively the emission reduction intensity and synergy of various emission reduction measures,priority should be given to emission reduction measures such as raising emission standards,promoting new energy vehicles and increasing public transport sharing rate on the basis of the construction of a comprehensive vehicle emission control system.