Energy And Environmental Systems Planning Model Based On Inexact Optimization Methodology

For many Chinese cities, the contradiction of energy supply and demand, unreasonable energy structure, energy misallocation, inadequate pollution reduction control, backward energy technology, and other obstacles in energy system management cause a series of energy, economic, environmental, and social problomes. According to related data, reports, and researches, in the future decades, with the rapid development of soc-economy, these issues will get further exacerbated, which will severely restrict the process of sustainable development in China. Therefore, it needs to conduct the comprehensive planning of energy and environmental system, which can provide scientific basis fbrdeveloping and utilizing energy resources, optimizing energy structure, improving environemtal quality, promoting energy technological innovation, and other decision problems.However, energy and environmental planning systems consist of plenty of complexities. Under the interactions among energy reservesand time-space distribution, energy technology development, climate change, environmental capacity, economic and social planning, and international energy situation, throughthe processes of energy production, transmission and distribution, utilization, pollution reduction,andmulti-level spatio-temporal allocation, the fossil energy (e.g., coal, oil, natural gas, etc) and renewable energy (e.g., wind, solar, and nuclearpower, etc) can satisfy the terminal demands from industry, household, municipal sectors, commerce, and transportation, and finally the comprehensive benefits of energy, economy, environment, and societycan get maximized. The multi-attribute of internal system factors and their mult i-layer interactions present striking uncertain and dynamic features. Moreover, the limitations of human cognitive level lead to uncertainty and spatial and temporal heterogeneity in quantitative expression of system factors. And then, all these challenges complex the processes of energy policy analysis and strategy making. Conventional energy models often cannot actually reflect these complexities and uncertainties, and most maturity models lack the consideration of China’s actual conditions and are difficult to apply.Therefore, aiming atthe specific problems of energy and environmental system management in major Chinese cities, from the perspective of energy-environment-economic system, to solve the technical difficulties and challenges such as multiple uncertainty, complexity, and dynamic, this research would develop a set of inexact energy-environmental system optimization approaches, and then would be applied into the energy andenvironmental planning of Beijing and Qiqihar city, which could provide scientific basis for energy system planning, energy-saving and emission reduction. Specifically, this study can:(1) To address the contradiction of electricity supply and demand, based on the integration of minimax regret programming with interval programming methods, an inexact electric power andenvironmental system planning model would be developed to quantify the risk of electricity supply and demand, which could effectively balance the conflict between electricity pre-target and actual demand, and generate achievable electricity schemes.(2) In order to tackle the high degree of uncertainty in energy-environmental systems, a fuzzy radial interval programming method based energy and environmental system planning model would be developed by introducing radial interval theory, which could expand the decision space, enhance system reliability, generate more robust system solutions, and finally improve the scientificity and feasibility of planning processes.(3) Inexact Beijing and Qiqihar energy-environmental system planning models would be established based on comprehensive systemanalysis. Interval chance-constraint programming, fuzzy programming, constraint-violation analysis, scenario analysis, and energy-substitution effect methods would be integrated into Beijing energy-environmental model, which could analyze and compare energy activities schemes under various scenarios of pollution emissions reduction. According to the specific features of Qiqihar energy-environmental system, Qiqihar energy-environmental model would be developed based on Bayesian interval-parameter robust programming method, which could not only enhance the model reliability and the prediction accuracy of energy demand, but also quantitatively analyze the impact of economic development on energy-environmental system. The obtained solutions could provide decision support for the energy planning of Qiqihar city.The generated results indicate that the developed energy-environmental system planning models under uncertainty have many advantages over the previous optimization approaches, which could improve systems reliability and solutions feasibility. Furthermore, this study complements the inexact energy and environmental model totally suitable for China’s situation, which could provide decision makers with scientific and efficient planning schemes, including economic structure adjustment, optimal energy allocation, energy technology combination, and environmental pollution control.