Research On Human Reliability Analysis Method Of Manned Submersible Vehicle In Complex Scenario Environment

The cabin working environment of deep-sea high pressure brings great safety risks to the deepsea operation of submariners.With the continuous improvement of key technologies and equipment in deep-sea exploration,the security risks brought by the reliability of hardware system are gradually reduced,but the security risks caused by human factors are gradually highlighted.Due to the harsh environment of deep-sea operation cabin,the submarine must endure the double pressure of narrow and closed environment in the long-term deep-sea mission,which poses great challenges to the submarine's physiology and psychology.Therefore,it is an urgent problem to analyze the reliability of manned submersible vehicle and improve its operational capability in the cabin design stage.The key to study the human factor reliability of manned submersible is to systematically and comprehensively analyze the influence of deepsea cabin environment on human operation ability,and to predict the probability of human factor errors of submariners in complex scenarios.Because the cabin environment of manned submersible is complex and dynamic in the mission process,traditional human reliability analysis(HRA)can not meet the requirements of human reliability analysis in the overall design stage of manned submersible.Therefore,aiming at the limitation of traditional human reliability analysis method,this paper takes human reliability analysis under complex scenario environment of manned submersible as the research object,improves the traditional HRA method in view of the special dynamic cabin environment of manned submersible,and puts forward the submersible operation under dynamic thermal environment based on safety contribution evaluation.The human reliability analysis method of complex situation environment is based on capability analysis,cognitive and task series parallel system model construction.The main research work of this paper includes the following aspects:(1)The human reliability analysis method system of manned submersible in complex operating environment is established.On the basis of analyzing the limitations of traditional human reliability analysis methods,aiming at the characteristics of complex scenario environment of manned submersible,a human reliability analysis method oriented to complex scenario environment is proposed.The human reliability in complex scenario environment is analyzed from three aspects of macro,dynamic and task,and the complex situation is determined.The key indicators of human reliability analysis of scenic environment are constructed,and the framework of human reliability analysis method for complex scenario environment is constructed,which provides theoretical basis for human reliability analysis of manned submersible in complex scenario environment.(2)A risk factor analysis method for complex scenario environment is proposed.Based on the analysis of the root causes of human errors in complex systems and the cognitive behavior model of submariners,a pedigree framework of environmental risk factors in complex scenarios is constructed.A multi-criteria decision-making model of environmental risk factors in complex scenarios is proposed,and the decision-making laboratory method(Decision Making Trial and Evaluatio)is used.N Laboratory(DEMATEL)analyzed the relationship among the factors in the scenario environment.Interval Rough Number(RN)was used to deal with the fuzziness and uncertainty of subjective evaluation data.An analysis network process(ANP)was used to construct a cross-level index relationship to solve the complex scenario.Assessment and optimization of safety contribution of environmental risk factors.(3)A human error prediction method based on improved cognitive reliability and error analysis method(cream)is constructed.On the basis of studying the basic principles and forecasting methods of CREAM,the common performance condition(CPC)is supplemented and perfected according to the pedigree of risk factors in complex scenarios.Situational environmental risk is calculated by risk factor safety contribution,cognitive function impact index and cognitive function status judgment factor.Index is used to assess the level of environmental risk in scenarios.According to the characteristics of cognitive behavior of submariners in complex scenarios,a task model of submariners based on the structure of cognitive behavior task seriesparallel system is constructed.The general tasks of manned submarines are divided into two parts: cognitive chain and event chain.The basic error probability of cognitive behavior of target event is obtained by comprehensive weighting,and the basic error probability of target task is obtained by task model.(4)According to the dynamic environment characteristics of manned submersible,a dynamic human reliability analysis method is proposed.On the basis of studying the limitations of the environmental control system of manned submersible,the scenario environmental performance compensation factor is used to modify the probability of cognitive error,and a human error prediction model based on the scenario environmental performance compensation factor is constructed,and the relationship between the scenario environmental performance compensation factor and the work efficiency of the submersible is established.A time Average Predicted Mean Vote(TAPMV)method is proposed for evaluating the dynamic thermal environment comfort of human submersibles under special dynamic thermal environment conditions.The operational capability of human in dynamic thermal environment is analyzed and evaluated.The potential in dynamic environment is obtained by combining the mathematical regression model of thermal environment performance evaluation.The changing characteristics of crew's operational ability provide support for dynamic human reliability analysis.(5)The dynamic prediction of the human error probability of the submarine during the 7000 m mission is realized.Taking the human factor reliability analysis of Jiaolong manned submersible during six 7000 m sea trials as an example,the method proposed in this paper is applied to construct the scenario environmental risk factor spectrum of Jiaolong,evaluate the environmental risk level of operation scenario,and carry out human factor reliability analysis and forecast submarine for the key link of 7000 m mission.Personnel error probability.In this paper,the theory and method of human factor reliability analysis are introduced into the field of manned deep diving.The probability of human factor errors is analyzed and predicted from three aspects: risk analysis of complex scenarios,prediction of cognitive errors of divers and prediction of human factors errors in dynamic scenarios.It is helpful for safety engineers of submarine design and research institutes and ocean resources development organizations to analyze and determine the key objectives of cabin optimization design,so as to make the human-machine environment of manned submarine cabin meet the cognitive behavior characteristics,operation and usage habits of submarine operators,as well as the requirements of deep-sea operation tasks,so as to give better play to the submarine divers.Force,adapt to deep-sea cabin operation activities,reduce safety risks,maximize the efficiency of humanmachine system.The results can provide support for the design of deep-sea manned cabins such as 10,000-meter manned submersible and deep-sea space station in the future.