The Great Recession's impact on the counties of Illinois: Did stimulus spending and collaboration create jobs

This study analyzes the State of Illinois during the Great Recession and in the post-recession recovery and explains the variance among the counties in terms of job loss and job creation. Utilizing data from the Illinois General Assembly Legislative Research Unit, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) website, and the Illinois Department of Employment Security, this study explores the relationships among variables that represent employment, economic stimulus spending, participation in regional economic development programs, and diverse employment bases to understand which variables best predict stimulus spending, job losses and job creation before, during, and after the Great Recession. The findings conclude that stimulus spending in Illinois was driven by population and not economic need. County job gains during the subsequent recovery were predominantly predicted by the number of job losses during the recession. Stimulus spending had a small but statistically significant predictive value. Participation in a federal economic development district had a statistically significant but negative effect on predicting job growth. The author suggests communities strive to retain their job capacity during recessionary business cycles and policy makers develop apolitical ways to direct future stimulus spending programs to secure more significant economic impacts.