CAUSES OF CHANGES IN VITAL RATES: THE CASE OF BANGLADESH

Rapid population growth is one of the main problems facing Bangladesh. The Government of Bangladesh has set specific and ambitious goals, based on the demographic transition model, it feels must be met to "solve" the "population problem". Many analysts feel these goals are very unlikely to be achieved. They suggest that high fertility and rapid population growth will continue in Bangladesh until economic and institutional collapse brings catastrophic mortality. In this dissertation I evaluate these two and a third (middle-level) alternative demographic futures for Bangladesh.; The dissertation reviews long-term economic and demographic trends, analyzes changes in fertility and mortality rates from 1966 through 1976 and examines in greater depth the demographic fluctuations caused by the crisis of 1974-75. The changing ecology of South Asia is described and the impact of these changes on economic development and vital rates is discussed.; During the 50 to 70 years prior to Partition in 1947, Bengal appears to have experienced sustained economic decline. Despite this, the death rate fell substantially over this period. Since Partition, the economy of Bangladesh has continued to be characterized by stagnation and decline. Under the present circumstances short-term economic fluctuations, particularly variations in the price of rice, have a substantial impact on vital rates. Economic crises are often related to natural disasters, especially floods. The analysis of ecological change--much of which is aggravated by population growth--suggests that, in the future, floods will become a more frequent and more serious problem for Bangladesh.; The ecological, economic and demographic trends and variations described combine to form a cycle which, in the absence of dramatic intervention to reverse present trends, will result in further ecological deterioration, economic decline and adverse demographic effects. It will be very difficult for the Government of Bangladesh to effect dramatic change. A review of recent agricultural development programs reveals few successes and consideration of village social and political structures suggests some of the formidable obstacles to economic advance.; Taking all this information as a whole, I conclude that the Government is unlikely to achieve its demographic goals. Rather, over the foreseeable future, mortality is likely to increase and fertility to decline modestly. However, it is unlikely that any demographic change will be catastrophic. Thus the Government of Bangladesh has the opportunity to continue and improve on its development efforts, perhaps achieving its demographic goals over the longer term.