*Experience, uniqueness of task, and decision-making performance: A retrospective study of Air Force pilots and inflight aircraft malfunctions (1980--1990)

Experience has been shown to increase decision performance in often-practiced tasks. Very little research has measured decision performance of experts in rare or unique tasks. The domain of this study is the decision making of pilots after their aircraft are stricken with serious mechanical malfunctions. In this first large-sample empirical investigation of subjects forced to make decisions in situations with high levels of actual stress a strong interactive effect of uniqueness of task and experience on decision making effectiveness was demonstrated. Analysis of 146 Air Force mishaps indicates that the decision making of experienced pilots is more effective than novice pilots in routine mishaps, and no better, and perhaps inferior to novices in unique mishaps. These results are based on several cognitive and affective differences between experts and novices--experts' more rigid and abstract mental models, differences in goals between experts and novices, and complacency and overconfidence of experts. Competing explanations for recency of flight, flight position, and historical trend were also evaluated. The impact of this study includes support for the notion of expert fragility, the need to develop crisis decision support systems, and improved pilot decision making training programs. ftn*The views expressed in this research are the author's and do not reflect the position of the Air Force or the Air Force Safety and Inspection Center. Access to the mishap database was granted in the interest of mishap prevention and reduction and because of the author's position with the Air Force and on the condition that the identity of specific mishaps will not be revealed.