Risk communication and relative personal invulnerability: A path analysis

This study proposed a causal model to explain why people perceive themselves as less vulnerable to a predicted major earthquake than are most other persons in the same area. While some researchers believed that the perception of relative personal invulnerability is a kind of unrealistic optimism that could endanger the individual's personal safety and prohibit the success of a public safety campaign, this study proposed that relative personal invulnerability is not necessarily reflecting people's ignorance of risk warnings; sometimes, it could be an indirect consequence of risk communication behaviors.; The causal model suggested that when people are faced with a serious risk, those who are relatively more concerned about the risk and those who consider the risk warning as quite convincing will look for more information about the risk from the mass media and from interpersonal channels. The communication behaviors will then create some communication effects, such as increasing individuals' perceived self-expertise about the risk and enhancing their perceptions of the risk controllability. Finally, these communication effects will directly lead to the perception of relative personal invulnerability.; The proposed causal model was tested by the statistical method of path analysis. The numerical solutions to the proposed path diagram suggested that the theoretical thinking underlying the causal model was supported by the data. Risk involvement and risk perception did lead individuals to look for more risk information carried by the mass media and by the interpersonal channels. Among the risk communication behaviors, reading risk reports in newspapers did increase the perceived self-expertise about the risk, and talking about the risk did increase both perceived self-expertise about the risk and perceived controllability of the risk. And, finally, one of the proposed risk communication effects, perceived controllability of the risk did directly lead to the perception of relative personal invulnerability.; No evidence was found to support the argument that the perception of relative personal invulnerability is reflecting individuals' ignorance or rejection to the risk warning. The results of the path analysis indicated that lower levels of risk involvement and risk perceptions had no significant direct effect on relative personal invulnerability.