| Discrete event simulation models are developed to capture the dynamics of supply of workstation hardware and software components. The results of the workstation assembly model show that a top-of-the-line workstation, configured with a 200 megaHertz CPU, a 64 megabyte main memory, a 1 gigabyte magnetic hard disk, a 19-inch color CRT display with a 2.6 megapixel resolution, and a UNIX operating system, will cost around {dollar}10,000 by 1994. These same capabilities, if configured into a workstation in 1991, would cost approximately {dollar}20,000.; Three feature size cases are considered. In the Base Case, the feature size decreases at an exponential rate of 5.5% per year. In Case 2, the feature size stops decreasing after 1992, and the price of an assembled workstation jumps 20.5% from the projected Base Case price for 1996. In Case 3, the feature size decreases at an exponential rate of 10% per year--almost double the Base Case rate--and the price of an assembled workstation decreases 8.4% from the projected Base Case price for 1996. If extended to the year 2001, the 10% exponential rate of decrease of feature size yields a price per megabyte of a semiconductor DRAM that is less than the price per megabyte of a magnetic hard disk.; Correspondingly, three values of the number of silicon wafer defects per unit area are considered. In the Base Case, the number of silicon wafer defects per unit area is 2.5 defects per cm{dollar}sp2{dollar}. In Case 2, the number of silicon wafer defects per unit area doubles after 1992 to 5 defects per cm{dollar}sp2{dollar}, the IC die yields decrease by as much as 88.9%, and the CPU price per megaHertz and the DRAM price per megabyte jump 277% and 69.1% respectively from their projected Base Case values for 1996. In Case 3, the number of silicon wafer defects per unit area is halved to 1.25 defects per cm{dollar}sp2{dollar} after 1992, the IC die yields increase by as much as 355.6%, and the CPU price per megaHertz and the DRAM price per megabyte decrease 51.8% and 47.7% respectively from their projected Base Case values for 1996. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.)... |
