U.S. NUCLEAR WAR-FIGHTING AND CRISIS INSTABILITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF (UNITED STATES)

This study analyzes U.S. nuclear "war-fighting" doctrine and its implications for crises in the Persian Gulf. Because the probability of armed conflict has increased with a concurrent rise in the potential for use of nuclear weapons in warfare, it is necessary to scrutinize areas where interests and commitments threaten to elicit a U.S. military response. These concerns are particularly relevant for the Persian Gulf region following the fall of the Shah and the build-up of American military capabilities in the area.;The argument first establishes the strategic context which nuclear war-fighting provides for U.S. military operations by examining the evolution and content of U.S. nuclear doctrine. Next, sources of domestic and regional instabilities in the Gulf that could trigger U.S. military involvement are identified.;Drawing on personal interviews with current and former government officials, the academic literature, and publicly available materials, the study analyzes U.S. policy in terms of military and technical factors affecting crisis instability. The research offers a substantive profile of U.S. force structure and operational strategies which are intended to implement Gulf military policy, including nuclear options. Potential technical vulnerabilities in U.S. Gulf operations are evaluated, with special attention to possible communication breakdowns which could result in a loss of control over military operations.;The study argues that U.S. military policy is unnecessarily escalatory and that nuclear weapons need not be a part of U.S. deterrence in the Gulf. Furthermore, U.S. policy is flawed in its overconcentration on an unlikely Soviet threat and on American military options which are inappropriate for an area experiencing political problems.;This study uses a crisis instability approach to identify and analyze factors which increase the likelihood that a crisis will escalate to the point where nuclear weapons may be used. It relies on deterrence theory to analyze and question how U.S. military policy could worsen a crisis in the Persian Gulf and in what ways might nuclear weapons be drawn upon.