| Hong Kong is on the verge of reversion to Chinese sovereignty in 1997 after more than 150 years as a British colony. On the eve of her return to China, and in the wake of continuing political fall-out from the tragic events at Tiananmen Square in June 1989, one cannot help but wonder about the prospects of this capitalist miracle as part of bureaucratic, backward Communist China. Current experiments in the Special Economic Zones in Guangdong and Fujian Province have already created a host of unforeseen political difficulties for the reform-minded Dengist regime which has also had its share of problems during the last decade keeping the lid on the inevitable social consequences of China's strategic decision to embrace an outward-looking economic policy.; The successful incorporation of a stable and prosperous Hong Kong into the mainland will require the reconciliation of various competing interest groups through implementation of an effective compromise policy. China's proposed "one country, two systems" model, however, whereby Hong Kong will allegedly maintain a high level of autonomy, has had little real success in other parts of China, notably in the autonomous regions of Tibet and Xinjiang where it has served merely as a cover facilitating central rule. Beijing's fundamental unpredictability, moreover, raises serious doubts about the ability of the reformers to prevent the older, more ideological components of the PRC leadership from prevailing.; The issue of Hong Kong's future must be decoupled from China's internal politics to insulate it as much as possible from the teeter-tottering policy shifts of China's aging leaders. Britain must continue to press China on those areas of the Basic Law--Hong Kong's future mini-constitution--which are unacceptable to the people of Hong Kong and contrary to the principles espoused in the Sino-British Joint Declaration. More importantly, Britain should rebut the Chinese contention that Hong Kong is not an international issue and enlist the aid of countries willing to provide safe havens for those wishing to leave the territory if things take a turn for the worse. Ultimately, the domestic situation in China prior to 1997, in addition to the success or failure of the SEZs and the tenacity of the reformers to retain power, will determine the final direction of Hong Kong's future. |
