| An earthquake prediction for the New Madrid seismic zone, made by Iben Browning (generally described by the media as a climatologist), began to be publicized in late 1989. The date Browning set for the earthquake was on or around December 3, 1990. During the ensuing year, public and media response to the prediction accelerated. Countless broadcasts were aired over radio and television and hundreds of articles were written about the prediction and the possibility of earthquakes in the region. The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council held a press conference on October 18, 1990, issuing a 66-page document discrediting Browning's methodology and his prediction. The evaluation apparently did little to reduce public demand for information. Events culminated on December 3 in New Madrid, Missouri (population approximately 3000), with the news media omnipresent in the little town.; Because conventional scientists believe there is a high probability for an earthquake to occur in the region between now and the year 2045 it is important to understand public response to the prediction, which originated with an unconventional source. Documentation of response is also important in order to aid individuals and agencies faced with the responsibility of reacting to future unconventional predictions of natural disaster.; This dissertation explores response to the prediction by the residents of four small communities near or within the New Madrid seismic zone. The research reveals that the public does not simply rely on conventional science or scientists when dealing with a threat that is spatially diffuse, of unknown dimensions, and shrouded in speculation. By the same token, official response to unconventional predictions has been characterized by confusion regarding when or how to respond, the release of differently worded messages at different time intervals from different sources, and an inability to track escalating public apprehension due to inexperience with such situations. Consequently, unbudgeted funds are expended to provide the public with the materials and presentations they demand, and personnel charged with the duty of responding to the demand for information and clarification become exhausted. The research yielded recommendations that will help officials in different parts of the nation monitor, and respond to, future unconventional earthquake predictions. |
