Automobile passive restraints effectiveness evaluation: An examination of economic, demographic and risk impacts of highway safety regulation

This study employs a comprehensive public health model of highway fatality risk. The passive restraint requirement is examined within the context of the technological, economic and social factors contributing its success. High risk population groups are identified, increasing our understanding of what social and demographic characteristics contribute to fatal accident risk.;The technological success of passive restraints is evaluated based upon experience in crashes during the period 1988 through 1989, as compared to the overall fatal and severe injury driver risk for drivers of vehicles not equipped with passive restraints.;The results show that passive restraints technologically succeed in providing the same level of occupant protection as manual three-point belts provided that they are used correctly. However, they fail to increase protection if the design of the belt is not completely passive. Popularization of belt designs that mix passive and manual restraints in lower-priced, lighter weight vehicles may result in increases in the severe injury risk for the population of drivers in those vehicles.;Some sociodemographic characteristics are associated with higher fatality rates, most notably, per capita income and employment status. These higher risk groups will gain less from the regulation because they are in income groups that are unlikely to ever purchase a new car, and second, their a priori fatality risk is higher than those likely to purchase new vehicles.;The overall effect of the implementation of the passive restraint rule is likely to be some reduction in sales of vehicles of the higher size classes and retention or longer life-spans of older vehicles due to price sensitivity at the very lowest price ranges for new vehicles.;Under a conservative estimate of safety belt law effectiveness the simulation predicts lower fatality rates with mandatory seat belt laws due to its applicability to the entire population of drivers, and because seatbelts are more effective in all accident scenarios than are passive restraints. In short, passive restraints will definitely fail to provide the same type of safety benefits as do manual seat belts in the short run, and could continue to fail in the long run.