| Acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data, satellite imagery, and the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) were used to determine dominant forcing for central east Florida shelf (CEFS) upwelling. The ability to forecast upwelling would be a valuable tool for government, for fishing, for diving, and how it serves as a major biological driver. An ADCP has been deployed in 8 m of water 0.5 km northeast of Sebastian Inlet, FL since 1997. Upwelling has been recorded every summer at this site with a maximum temperature decrease of 15°C during one event.;Two ADCPs were deployed in 20 m and 30 m depths east of Sebastian Inlet during summer 2011, and three were deployed east of the inlet during summer 2012 in 20, 30, and 80 in depths. Two upwellings were recorded during 2011 with temperature decreases of 7.5°C, and three upwellings in 2012 with a maximum temperature decrease of 12°C. Satellite sea surface temperature images allowed for the identification of meanders along the western edge of the Gulf Stream (GS) prior to recorded upwellings. Stronger upwelling-favorable winds were present during 2012. Directional current data and water temperature showed that the up-welled water was moving shore parallel during the 2011 upwellings and westward during the 2012 upwellings. Higher correlation coefficients were found between GS transport and water temperature than with upwelling favorable winds.;A 1 km resolution grid was constructed along the central east Florida shelf, extending from Miami to north of Cape Canaveral, FL for ROMS hindcasts of the 2011 and 2012 upwellings. Lateral boundary forcing was from the Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) model, and surface forcing was from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) atmospheric model. Skill assessment was made by comparing simulations to ADCP and satellite SST data. ROMS successfully simulated the general ocean physics of the CEFS. ROMS simulated the ADCP temperature records with a minimum skill of 0.52. Upwelled water reached farthest into the inner shelf when ROMS was forced by the GS and wind. |
