Advancing computational methods for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Application for modeling climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina

Watershed-scale hydrologic models are used for a variety of applications from flood prediction, to drought analysis, to water quality assessments. A particular challenge in applying these models is calibration of the model parameters, many of which are difficult to measure at the watershed-scale. A primary goal of this dissertation is to contribute new computational methods and tools for calibration of watershed-scale hydrologic models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, in particular. SWAT is a physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water quality and quantity. The dissertation follows a manuscript format meaning it is comprised of three separate but interrelated research studies. The first two research studies focus on SWAT model calibration, and the third research study presents an application of the new calibration methods and tools to study climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina using SWAT.;The objective of the first two studies is to overcome computational challenges associated with calibration of SWAT models. The first study evaluates a parallel SWAT calibration tool built using the Windows Azure cloud environment and a parallel version of the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) calibration method modified to run in Azure. The calibration tool was tested for six model scenarios constructed using three watersheds of increasing size (the Eno, Upper Neuse, and Neuse) for both a 2 year and 10 year simulation duration. Leveraging the cloud as an on demand computing resource allowed for a significantly reduced calibration time such that calibration of the Neuse watershed went from taking 207 hours on a personal computer to only 3.4 hours using 256 cores in the Azure cloud.;The second study aims at increasing SWAT model calibration efficiency by creating an open source, multi-objective calibration tool using the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). This tool was demonstrated through an application for the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, USA. The objective functions used for the calibration were Nash-Sutcliffe (E) and Percent Bias (PB), and the objective sites were the Flat, Little, and Eno watershed outlets. The results show that the use of multi-objective calibration algorithms for SWAT calibration improved model performance especially in terms of minimizing PB compared to the single objective model calibration.;The third study builds upon the first two studies by leveraging the new calibration methods and tools to study future climate impacts on the Upper Neuse watershed. Statistically downscaled outputs from eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used for both low and high emission scenarios to drive a well calibrated SWAT model of the Upper Neuse watershed. The objective of the study was to understand the potential hydrologic response of the watershed, which serves as a public water supply for the growing Research Triangle Park region of North Carolina, under projected climate change scenarios. The future climate change scenarios, in general, indicate an increase in precipitation and temperature for the watershed in coming decades. The SWAT simulations using the future climate scenarios, in general, suggest an increase in soil water and water yield, and a decrease in evapotranspiration within the Upper Neuse watershed.;In summary, this dissertation advances the field of watershed-scale hydrologic modeling by (i) providing some of the first work to apply cloud computing for the computationally-demanding task of model calibration; (ii) providing a new, open source library that can be used by SWAT modelers to perform multi-objective calibration of their models; and (iii) advancing understanding of climate change impacts on water resources for an important watershed in the Research Triangle Park region of North Carolina. The third study leveraged the methodological advances presented in the first two studies. Therefore, the dissertation contains three independent by interrelated studies that collectively advance the field of watershed-scale hydrologic modeling and analysis.