LINKAGES BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT (SOUTHEAST ASIA)

This dissertation examines the relationships between economic growth and international conflict in history and theory, develops and analyzes a set of observed empirical modern growth-conflict relationships over long periods, and presents an explanation of the observations. The primary methodology is the search for lawlike regularities across empirical observations. The dissertation presents an application of the results in Southeast Asia.; The dissertation identifies historical perceptions of the growth-conflict relationship from ancient times through the modern era. Anecdotal historical evidence implies a weak direct-positive relationship. A survey of theoretical approaches reveals no consensus about the relationship, and various contradictory or ambiguous explanations. Analysis of empirical observations reveals a dual relationship, and suggests that the type of growth determines the type of effect--direct or inverse, as well as its timing and strength.; The dissertation splits aggregate growth into two types--resource-based and knowledge-based--mediated respectively by trade and foreign direct investment. Where trade is more significant in explaining aggregate growth as resource-based, the growth-conflict relationship is direct. Greater significance of foreign direct investment and knowledge-based growth is associated with the inverse relationship. The dissertation argues that the relative salience of foreign direct investment as a component of aggregate growth indicates which growth-conflict relationship--direct or inverse--dominates a country's international relations, and thus predicts the predominant effect of growth on conflict.; The final section shows how Southeast Asian policy affected flows of foreign direct investment, which affected the country and regional growth-conflict relationships and changed them over time. The dissertation offers an alternative theoretical construct for further investigation, and speculates about the impact of these results on orthodox political-economic theory. The results carry powerful implications for national management of foreign direct investment and trade in both home countries and host nations.