| These are uncertain times for research libraries. The future juxtaposes optimism and harsh reality. The whole information structure that has been in place since the invention of the printing press is changing. This research addresses a most difficult financial dilemma facing research libraries and universities; how to afford maintaining the best of the traditional library while also incorporating new information technologies. The financial requirements for research libraries to survive and maintain traditional services are substantial, but when added to resources required to convert to a new age of information access, the financial challenges are staggering.;Harvard College Library is selected for study because of its size, complexity and importance of maintaining traditional services, meaning comprehensive collection development, while guiding the introduction of new technology and services. Research questions are (1) What is the nature of forces that will influence the economics of Harvard College Library (HCL) in the next decade? (2) What are the critical variables affecting major income and expense components of HCL's budget? (3) What are the important budgetary tradeoffs that HCL will likely face in maintaining long-term financial well-being? The research approach analyzes strategic financial issues by utilizing computer based financial modeling, environmental analysis, and multiple scenario analysis.;Financial projections are developed for three scenarios. The first scenario is described as "Holding the Course." It reflects a future where the library remains focused on strengthening a print oriented collection, while trying to respond, in an affordable and feasible manner, to demands for new investments in network and technology based information services. The second scenario, "Through the Electronic Gateway, incorporates the powerful possibilities of rapid technological evolution in expanding services to scholars. It describes a shift in focus from collection development to accessing information in various formats. The third scenario, "Economic Malaise", is more pessimistic than the first two, and characterizes the next decade as a period of financial distress for universities and research libraries.;Comparing outcomes of financial simulations for the three scenarios demonstrates the need for new approaches to budgeting and financial planning for research libraries. |
