Changing of the guard: The impact of leadership change on military intervention

This dissertation seeks to reconcile the various positions regarding the conflict behavior of democratizing states by exploring the impact of leaders on the choice to intervene militarily. The study moves beyond a focus on the nature of the political system in explaining conflict to consider the impact of not only the presence or absence of leadership change but also the nature of that change and the stability of the leadership group vis-a-vis other sectors of society. The study utilizes five independent dimensions of domestic political change to consider in assessing the impact of internal change on external conflict behavior.; The multivariate analyses examines the relationship between the presence of leadership change and intervention involvement as either an initiator or a target. The analysis provides consistent and robust support for the proposition that states experiencing a leadership change are more likely to initiate as well as become a target of intervention. Leadership exerts a significant and independent impact on being an initiator and a target of military intervention. The analysis also indicates a relationship between the stability of the leadership group and conflict. States with moderately stable leadership groups are more likely to be targets of military intervention.; Additional analyses examine the relationship between the nature of the leadership change and military intervention. The analyses provide support for the hypothesized relationship between states experiencing a factional or coalition shift and the initiation of military intervention. Leaders who come to power through this type of change appear to push outward to consolidate their hold on power. The results also provide support for the hypothesized relationship between states experiencing a party exchange between similar political groups and being targeted for intervention. In contrast to the notion that vulnerable states are targeted for hostile reasons, the results suggest that these states are often targeted for "life-support" purposes. Taken together, the results suggest that more "routine" types of leadership change are significantly related to military intervention.