| How can we understand periodic increases and decreases in tensions between ethnic groups in multi-ethnic locales? In this study, I conduct a detailed and sequenced examination of 18 contentious episodes in nine mixed locales of Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine (where Hungarians constitute the primary non-titular group) in order to identify regular patterns of group interaction. These interactive, relational mechanisms Play driving roles in the processes of contentious politics, such as legitimation, mobilization, and polarization. Having identified particular sequences of mechanisms in processes, as well as some regular patterns among some of the processes themselves, I have found that counter to much of the common wisdom, inter-ethnic contention may routinize exchanges between groups, decreasing the probability that violence will occur between them. In addition, processes such as institutionalization, defusing tensions, or group splintering require a specific sequence of interactive mechanisms. Observing the presence or absence of particular interactive mechanisms through the comparison of detailed, sequenced contentious episodes thus provides a fruitful alternative to methods that emphasize the identification and comparison of variable attributes. The episodes examined here include: instances of violence, contention over autonomy for Hungarians, language use and policy, and symbols. The six propositions produced from this research may be generalized to other settings under conditions of paradigm differences, democracy, and sovereignty. |
