Backs against the wall: War, dictatorship, and democracy in the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand

A comparison of the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand finds a strong relationship between the intensity of security threats and several measures of state strength among, and within, these countries. In all three, security problems not only pressured regimes to upgrade their collection and use of state resources for national defense, social mobilization, and economic development, but also drew American military and economic assistance. South Korea, which confronted North Korea, China, and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, has faced relatively higher security threats than Thailand or the Philippines and relied far more on U.S. aid until the 1970s. Yet South Korea also forged the highest levels of state strength, as measured by armed forces per 1,000 people and tax revenue as a percentage of gross domestic Product. Thailand, which faced communist Chinese and Vietnamese expansion linked to domestic insurgents, has had the second-strongest threats and state. The Philippines has had the weakest security threats and state and relied on U.S. aid less than South Korea or Thailand until after the Vietnam War. These findings suggest that security problems drive the state formation and national cohesion, including relatively efficient use of foreign aid, necessary for equitable growth. The study also finds a considerable relationship between security problems and level of democracy but suggests that security problems drive changes in regime type in whatever direction—dictatorship or democracy—builds government legitimacy and national defense. Whether each state met security challenges with liberalization or repression depended not only on its reliance on U.S. military protection and aid, but also its level of human development.