| Most efforts aimed at mathematically modeling and testing arms race processes have been confined to studying systems of two countries engaged in an arms race against each other. Such dyadic studies, however, are simply inadequate in dealing with the multitude of very real external influences that most nations must respond to in today's truly global international system.; This dissertation borrows from the existing literature on arms races to develop a baseline theoretical model of arms races as multi-nation (i.e., N-adic) processes. From this theoretical model, several empirically testable mathematical models describing N-adic arms race processes are derived and further specified with alternative forms of operationalization for their independent variables. These models are empirically evaluated using annual military expenditures, manpower, and inventories data from two regional N-nation systems, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.; The empirical results obtained from this study validate three critical arms race propositions, two of them theoretical and the third operational. First, action-reaction arming processes are rarely found to be dyadic in nature and instead are typically found to be N-adic. Nations rarely plan their military expenditures with just a single opponent in mind. Rather, they tend to take a broad view of their defense needs and plan for a wide range of potential contingencies.; Second, nations are frequently observed reacting asymmetrically to one another. A nation that reacts to the defense policies of a particular other country may not itself induce a parallel reaction in that other country. In fact, asymmetrical reactions appear to be the norm rather than the exception.; Third, the analyses reported in this dissertation demonstrate that military expenditures data may not be the best representation of military capabilities or threats. Despite being more comprehensive in their scope, those analyses that utilized military expenditures data were found to be, at best, no better than those analyses that utilized military inventories data. This is an important finding given the well-documented validity and reliability problems associated with military expenditures data. |
