Evaluating the effects of welfare reform on employment and AFDC/TANF participation transitions

Explicitly taking into account the duration effects, this dissertation evaluates the effects of welfare reform on employment and welfare participation transitions. Using the four-month aggregated SIPP 90, 91, 92, 93, and 96 panel data, I investigate four transitions: from non-employment to employment, from employment to non-employment, from AFDC/TANF to non-AFDC/TANF, and from non-AFDC/TANF to AFDC/TANF.; I compare the baseline hazard functions before and after welfare reform on each of the four transitions. The simple comparison of the baseline hazard functions between the SIPP 90--91 and the SIPP 93--96 panels suggests that the hazard rates for transitions from non-employment to employment and from AFDC/TANF participation to nonparticipation increased in the mid and late 1990s compared to the early 1990s, but the hazard of transitions from employment and non-AFDC/TANF remained similar.; For multivariate analysis, I estimate a discrete time hazard model with logit specification. I find that TANF implementation significantly increased the exit probability from non-employment and from AFDC/TANF participation but had no significant effects on the exit probability from employment and from non-AFDC/TANF. Waiver implementation reduced the exit probability from employment, but had no significant effects on the other transitions.