War and peace between great powers: Power transition in historical perspective

The rise and fall of great powers is one of the most intriguing phenomena in world history and international relations. Historically power transitions from a dominant nation to a challenger used to be associated with large-scale wars. While some progress has been made in accounting for wars during power transitions, little research has been done on the problem of peaceful management of power transitions in the international system.; This research analyzes power transitions in history and explores whether and how power transitions can be managed peacefully. I select two important cases of power transition for study: power rivalry between Great Britain and Germany (1871–1914) that led to a major war, and power transition from Great Britain to the United States (1865–1945) that ended peacefully between them. Combining inferences from historical analysis with the nature of the current international system, I explore whether and how a potential power transition from the United States to China can take place peacefully in the future. Using a multilevel analysis, the differences and similarities between the three cases are discussed, particularly the international and domestic environments each power faced or is facing.; The objectives of this research are three-fold: theoretical expansion, methodological contribution and policy implications.; Theoretically, this dissertation expands the Organskian power transition theory and advances peace research by analyzing factors contributing to systemic changes at international, domestic, societal and individual levels. Different from the realist school that focuses on states and military/security issues, this research also studies economic, cultural, social and other links between states and peoples.; Methodologically, this research bridges the gap between history and political science. There has been a poor link between the two disciplines. However, both share a focus on people and the ways they organize their affairs in a certain domestic and international environment. This research brings the two disciplines together by testing and expanding power transition theory through a comparative study of historical events. The research applies the findings and inferences from power transitions in history in the Western world to today's trans-Pacific relations. The policy implications from this research are significant. Lessons from history will be very useful for managing a potential power transition in the future such as one from the United States to China.