The steps to rivalry: Power politics and rivalry formation

Scholars have found that there are foreign policy choices states make that increase the probability of war occurring within a dyad (pair of states). Recent literature in international relations has come to hold that some dyads are more war prone and disputatious than others. These dyads are “rivals.” This dissertation argues that states that use power politics foreign policy practices (alliance formation and arms race participation) will be more likely to become dangerous rivalries (proto and enduring). Power politics strategies used early in the life of rivalry contribute to the formation and escalation of rivalries. I also show how conflict responses within rivalries are conditioned by linkages to other ongoing militarized interstate disputes and the formation of grand strategic plans. This study will be concerned with factors that distinguish isolated conflicts from proto and enduring rivalries. I hope to illustrate a process of rivalry development that accounts for the initiation, development, and escalation of rival dyads.