An integrated demographic, economic and water resource systems model of Botswana: A socioeconomic analysis of the impacts of investments in water supply and sanitation and HIV/AIDS prevention

The focus of this dissertation is on understanding the complex systems interactions of demographics, economics and water resources in Botswana. Botswana is primarily known for its wealth in diamonds, vast Kalahari Desert, extreme climate variability and debilitating level of HIV/AIDS. Given its scarce, highly variable water resource and vulnerable population, Botswana must make wise investment choices with its diamond revenues in order to ensure a sustainable future. To quantify the effects of different investment choices, an integrated model of the demographics, economics and water resources of Botswana was created. The model represents the combination of three models which were separately developed by scientists at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for an EU-sponsored project to analyze population, development and environmental (PDE) interactions in Botswana.; The demographic model is a multi-cohort model which characterizes the population by age, sex, level of education, and HIV/AIDS status. The economic model is a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) which allows for the impacts of policy decisions to be distributed across the economic sectors, as equilibrium in all markets is sought. Finally, an Integrated Water Systems (IWS) Model was developed to provide forecasts of future regional water supply and demand for Botswana, in order to determine the sustainability of the water supply under forecasts of economy, population, and climate.; The strength of an integrated tool lies in the endogenous connections that allow for changes in one system component to affect the others. What is unique to this integrated model are the feedbacks of water onto health. The quantity of water and the water supply and sanitation infrastructure drive diarrhea incidence. These factors impact the health of the labor force, as well as the health of the vulnerable HIV/AIDS population. As a result, changes in labor force productivity and/or size directly impact the economy. Through these endogenous feedback processes, the impact of investment in Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS) can be evaluated via a cost benefit analysis comparing the direct costs incurred for treating diarrhea and lost income due to lost labor days, with and without investment in WSS.*; *This dissertation includes a CD that is compound (contains both a paper copy and a CD as part of the dissertation). The CD requires the following applications: Microsoft Office, Vensim® Reader.