| Strategic planning has helped organization leaders cope with their complex external environments, but it reveals a weakness in its core assumption of a predictable environment. Scenario planning has emerged as a tool for considering uncertainty in the planning process, and it appears to be of high utility in rapidly changing environments. However, the theoretical development is lacking and general research about scenario planning has been minimal.; To address the current lack of theory, this research developed a theory of scenario planning following Dubin's (1978) theory building method. Dubin's (1978) eight-step research methodology consists of (1) developing the units of the theory, (2) specifying the laws of interaction describing the relationships among the units, (3) determining the boundaries within which the theory is expected to function, (4) identifying the system states in which the theory is expected to function, (5) specifying the propositions, or truth statements about how the theory is expected to operate, (6) identifying the empirical indicators used to make the propositions testable, and (7) constructing hypotheses used to predict values and relationships among the units.; The resulting theory is concluded to be of high value to both scenario planning professionals and business practitioners because it provides a basis for consistency in examining scenario planning. Further confirmation or disconfirmation of this new theory will allow more specific conclusions to be drawn about the ultimate effectiveness of scenario planning itself. |
