The investigation of space debris generation and associated long-term effects in the geosynchronous region

The hazards associated with space debris for geosynchronous orbit (GEO) satellites is quite different than for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. In GEO, the debris population is much smaller in number and the collision velocities for objects are lower than for LEO. In LEO however, there are natural removal mechanisms or "sinks" (i.e. atmospheric drag) for debris that are not present in GEO. This lack of natural removal mechanisms for debris in GEO combined with the continually increasing usage of the geosynchronous orbit, increases the probability of collision at GEO and presents an area of great concern.;The objectives of this research are five fold. First, to realistically model the long-term evolution (50-100 yrs) of the GEO population as accurately as possible while remaining computationally efficient. The geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environment Simulation (ODESI) program was specifically developed to produce this accurate propagation for objects in the GEO region. The second objective is to characterize the perturbing effects on objects of varying sizes and masses in the GEO region. The third objective is to determine the probabilities of collision in GEO using several current proven methods and determine if realistic positioning and propagation of all 563 cataloged objects in GEO results in a higher probability of collision than previously predicted. The fourth objective is to develop a nonhypervelocity breakup model that has the capability of determining the size, direction and velocity of the fragments generated from a low velocity breakup. This model will use a detailed finite element model of a U.S. GEO satellite to simulate the nonhypervelocity breakup. Finally, using the results from the nonhypervelocity breakup model combined with the ODESI program, determine and characterize the potential debris hazards in the geosynchronous orbit.