| Errors of the intensity forecasted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones demonstrate a critical research need. For example, some 48- and 72-hour forecasts of intensity were in error by -50 m s;Rainfall parameters from 251 observations of 32 eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones by Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-equipped satellites of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) were correlated with current intensity and future intensity change out to three days. Moderate (i.e., ;By combining convective rainfall with persistence, climatic, weekly sea surface temperature, and global numerical weather prediction model data, multiple linear regression models to predict future intensity change were developed. The resulting models explained about 60 percent of the variance of intensity change at each 12-hour forecast interval out to three days. A homogeneous comparison of 46 cases from 13 tropical cyclones found that 12- and 24-hour forecasts of intensity by a model with convective rainfall, persistence, climatic, and weekly sea surface temperature data outperformed other methods. |
