The future of the Texas High Plains aquifer system: Modeling and projections

The Ogallala aquifer underlies approximately 35,000 square miles of the Texas High Plains within 46 Texas counties. The High Plains has historically been the most extensively irrigated region in Texas. Interested parties developed the High Plains Ogallala Area Regional Water Management Plan to encourage proper utilization. As part of these efforts, MODFLOW was used to simulate regional aquifer conditions over a 50-year time period based on projected water demands. Hydrologic parameters were obtained from the Texas Water Development Board. Results indicate that many southern counties could be at risk within 20 years with current demand projections. The northern counties, with larger initial saturated thickness and less irrigation, appear to have more secure water availability. The model provides a tool to estimate impacts of conservation measures and drought conditions. This information will assist in the planning and implementation of water resource management strategies, such as those enumerated in Senate Bill 1.