| This research presents a model for forecasting the numbers of jobs created in the energy efficiency retrofit (EER) supply chain resulting from an investment in upgrading residential buildings in Florida. This investigation examined material supply chains stretching from mining to project installation for three product types: insulation, windows/doors, and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Outputs from the model are provided for the project, sales, manufacturing, and mining level.;The model utilizes reverse-estimation to forecast the numbers of jobs that result from an investment. Reverse-estimation is a process that deconstructs a total investment into its constituent parts. In this research, an investment is deconstructed into profit, overhead, and hard costs for each level of the supply chain and over multiple iterations of inter-industry exchanges. The model processes an investment amount, the type of work and method of contracting into a prediction of the number of jobs created. The deconstruction process utilizes data from the U.S. Economic Census. At each supply chain level, the cost of labor is reconfigured into full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs (i.e. equivalent to 40 hours per week for 52 weeks) utilizing loaded labor rates and a typical employee mix. The model is sensitive to adjustable variables, such as percentage of work performed per type of product, allocation of worker time per skill level, annual hours for FTE calculations, wage rate, and benefits.;This research provides several new insights into job creation. First, it provides definitions that can be used for future research on jobs in supply chains related to energy efficiency. Second, it provides a methodology for future investigators to calculate jobs in a supply chain resulting from an investment in energy efficiency upgrades to a building. The methodology used in this research is unique because it examines gross employment at the sub-industry level for specific commodities. Most research on employment examines the net employment change (job creation less job destruction) at levels for regions, industries, and the aggregate economy. Third, it provides a forecast of the numbers of jobs for an investment in energy efficiency over the entire supply chain for the selected industries and the job factors for major levels of the supply chain. |
