| Do the ways in which Africa became independent from colonial rules have persistent adverse effects on subsequent economic development? To examine this question, I construct a panel data set with two categories of countries: one that became independent through the Wars of Liberation against its former European colonizers, and the other which did so through peaceful agreement. I use the Synthetic Control Method to jointly estimate the income gap between the two groups before and after independence. Relative to their counterparts without conflict, I find that annual per capita income for the conflict group that gained independence through wars (Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe) would have been 7% higher, had it achieved peaceful independence. This income gap increased to 10% as these countries transitioned closer towards independence. The gap remained constant at 10% for about a decade after independence. However, the gap narrowed over time, then dissipated after 15 years as both groups' per capita incomes converge to a similar growth pattern. That is, the results suggest that independence via conflict has no persistent effect on today's economic performance. |
