A performance-based methodology to assess Department of Defense technologies

Many Department of Defense (DoD) weapon system failures are attributed to premature transfer of technology to operational systems. Insufficient measures of assessing technology readiness are major contributors to such failures. This dissertation presents a methodology to measure the performance risk of technology to determine its transition readiness. This methodology is referred to as Technology Performance Risk Measure (TPRM). Current DoD methodologies for assessing technology readiness heavily depend on the Technology Readiness Level (TRL). The TRL approach is problematic, since it measures the history and current capability of the technology's progress and the perceived maturity, but does not provide an indication of the associated risks involved in meeting requirements. Technology maturity knowledge is a limited utility one-dimensional metric. The TRL metric, by itself, is insufficient to assess technology. This has been recognized by the General Accountability Office (GAO), which recommended that DoD adopt policies with metrics for technology to support making decisions. The TPRM methodology can be used to track performance risk throughout the life cycle or to support a particular milestone decision. The TPRM utilizes achieved performance measured against technical performance requirements and the degree of difficulty as a risk measure. A TPRM decision aide risk matrix was developed as a visual representation to assist program managers to make informed decisions concerning technology transition into weapon systems. Five DoD technologies were selected as case studies to illustrate and validate the TPRM methodology. In all cases, TPRM provided useful information to support transition readiness decisions. In cases that TPRM provided a high measure of performance risk, the government incurred greater than 15% cost overrun and/or greater than six month schedule delay. The TPRM methodology provides valuable information regarding the risk associated with the technology performance. It has the potential to yield significant cost and schedule savings by more precisely determining when a technology is ready to be transitioned to a weapon system.