Ecological modeling and human dimensions of mangrove change in Florida

This dissertation examines recent past, present, and one potential future spatial distribution of mangrove habitat in Florida. Inasmuch a combination of remote sensing, mail and web-base surveys, interviews, and spatial-temporal modeling are employed.; A remote sensing study of 14 southern counties in Florida was conducted to examine the change in mangrove cover between 1987 and 2000. Utilizing a combination of a Bayesian classification technique coupled with elevation data, a mangrove coverage map for both years was generated. The 2000 map exceeded 90% accuracy when compared with an aerial photo set generated from the same time period. The 1987 cover map did not have an accuracy component due to the absence of a corresponding photo set. The results demonstrated a 9% loss in mangrove cover during the time period.; An examination of citizens, regulators, and mangrove enforcement professionals was also undertaken. This was done to better understand the attitudes, opinions, and experiences of these groups relative to mangrove legislation and protection. Both citizens and regulators were posed a series of questions administered in a mail and web-based survey respectively. The results of the citizen surveys indicated very little difference in opinion between citizens living under different mangrove regulations. Both citizens and regulators were under the impression that things have improved in mangrove habitats in recent years, but destruction by homeowners was still an important problem. A series of demographic and information on each respondents experiences was also collected during this process. Additionally, open-ended interviews were conducted with those charged with mangrove protection. These interviews expressed an under-funding of mangrove and environmental protection in Florida. There was also an indication that mangrove enforcement personnel were succeeding in their efforts to inform and educate the public on mangrove protection but work remained to be done.; Lastly, a cellular automata---markov model was employed to examine a potential future scenario of mangrove distribution in Florida. This scenario was derived by examining past trends in mangrove change and projected changes in basic environmental and human driven factors.{09}The end result demonstrates a projected loss of mangrove cover in the state over the next half century.