Change in nonlinear dynamics and spatial structure of coastal socio-ecological systems: Bay of Fundy as case study

While there is growing consensus for ecosystem-based management of the oceans, it is critical to avoid isolating marine systems in time. As contemporary research demonstrates, the past is integral to comprehending long term change in these environments. Furthermore, if system health is a goal for the future, appreciation of conditions prior to intense anthropogenic pressures can offer unique insight into ecosystem structure, function, and dynamics. However, to date, this research has been limited to equilibrium and linear views. Other work is increasingly demonstrating the prevalence of nonlinear behavior in the oceans, and challenging conventional assumptions of linearity and equilibrium. My doctoral research is the first to explore nonlinearity in an ecologically and economically vibrant, less degraded ecosystem of the past. Investigations combined qualitative narratives, novel analytical approaches, and historical data (circa 1870-1920) to expand knowledge on ecosystem dynamics, spatial structure, and resilience for the Bay of Fundy. Findings suggest the previous Bay ecosystem was highly nonlinear and locally diverse, yet interconnected with local substocks and potential subsystems. This structure may have been critical for population persistence and system resilience. Finally, although human influence clearly affected species abundance and distribution, it also shifted from local to regional scales. These spatial impacts likely caused similar change in the ecosystem, fundamentally undermining system resilience that had previously supported the Bay du ring centuries of human use.