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A hierarchical Bayes approach to modeling choice data: A study of wetland restoration programs

Posted on:2006-06-03Degree:Ph.DType:Dissertation
University:Duke UniversityCandidate:Eisen-Hecht, Jonathan IsaacFull Text:PDF
GTID:1451390008965713Subject:Economics
Abstract/Summary:
Voluntary programs are increasingly being viewed as a viable, and potentially superior, alternative to command-and-control strategies for achieving environmental goals. A better understanding of the factors that drive individual participation decisions can assist program managers in increasing the attractiveness of voluntary programs to their target market. This dissertation explored these issues with a specific focus on wetland restoration programs.; The primary objective of this dissertation was to increase understanding of the decision-making process of landowners in relation to voluntary wetland restoration programs. Secondary objectives were to use this understanding to inform the design strategy for wetland restoration programs and to perform policy simulations that predict potential program enrollment.; Using data collected from over 500 North Carolina landowners, this dissertation used choice-based conjoint analysis, a stated preference method, to estimate the values and importance that landowners place on the attributes of wetland restoration programs. The hierarchical Bayes method was used to estimate individual-level models that allow for preference heterogeneity. Through an application of cluster analysis, these individual-level parameters were used to examine how individual characteristics interacted with program characteristics to influence participation decisions.; For the secondary objectives of this dissertation, choice modeling was used to simulate the probability of enrollment for different program configurations and to estimate the changes in payments needed to make landowners indifferent between choices among various programs. These policy simulations enabled an examination of the performance of the wetland restoration programs currently offered in North Carolina and also the performance of new designs that incorporated a range of program goals.; A crucial result related to the importance that landowners placed on maintaining control of their land use options when considering program participation. The length of the contract and the timber harvesting options available to landowners were the most significant drivers of program participation decisions. Insights gained from the econometric analysis were further underscored in the policy simulations, in which programs that offered landowners a greater degree of control over their land use options were preferred over more restrictive options that offered larger program payments.
Keywords/Search Tags:Program, Options
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