| ield studies demonstrate that exposure to elevated concentrations of surface ozone (O3) causes substantial reductions in the yields of many crops, yet O3 pollution is often overlooked as a potentially significant threat to current and future agricultural production. This study quantifies the global impact of O3 on crop yields in the present (year 2000) and near future (2030) under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of O3 pollution, as well as associated crop production and economic losses for three key staple crops (soybean, maize, and wheat). This study additionally examines the potential of two strategies to reduce O3-induced yield losses that supplement controls on conventional O3 precursors: (1) O3 mitigation via gradual reductions of methane (CH4), an important greenhouse gas and a precursor to tropospheric background O 3 that to date has not been targeted for O3 abatement, and (2) adapting crops to elevated O3 by selecting cultivars with demonstrated O3 resistance relative to median-sensitivity varieties. Finally, this work contextualizes the estimated impact of O3 on global agricultural production with predicted climate change effects, and identifies regions of the world potentially at risk of reduced crop yields due to both O3 and climate change over the next few decades.;Results indicate that present-day O3-induced global crop yield reductions are substantial, ranging from 4--15% for wheat, 9--14% for soybean, and 2--6% for maize worth... |
