| The objective of this work was to develop a comprehensive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides (CAMEL) for supporting group decision making. CAMEL computes the possibility and areal concentration of all types of earthquake induced landslides (except lateral spreads) within a familiar conceptual framework. We developed CAMEL using the methodology of computing with words (CW). The essence of CW is relating numbers and words to express algorithmic knowledge elicited from, for this work, scientific literature. Linguistic representation of knowledge and characterization of uncertainty results in a comprehendible, adaptable model—an important characteristic for models appropriated within group decision-making contexts. An extensive sensitivity analysis of CAMEL was performed. We compared model outputs against a landslide inventory of the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. Model predictions with respect to disrupted landslides in soil compare well against the inventory, with predictions related to disrupted rock falls and rock avalanches appearing over-conservative. Based on a similar comparison, CAMEL performs as well or better than a popular model based on Newmark's displacement method. Because CAMEL is intended as a decision support tool, we designed a participatory model assessment strategy based on ideas of participatory technology assessment. We employed a fictional site selection task as a context for model appropriation within a workshop format. We analyzed questionnaire responses from participants—earth scientists and earthquake mitigation professionals—of four workshops. Results of the analysis suggest that CAMEL is more complete, informative, and, arguably, transparent than the Newmark displacement model. In general, the analysis showed little difference between the two models' capacity for facilitating group collaboration and positive task outcomes. This perception is likely influenced by participants having too little time to appropriate each model. Overall, participants enjoyed the workshops. They had enthusiastic and insightful suggestions for improvements to the prototype and future model applications. Based on the success of this work, we propose that participatory model assessment become common practice in the evaluation of all sustainability models—models intended for supporting group decisions about the relationships between the environment, economy and social equity. |
