Synoptic and mesoscale climate forcing on Antarctic ice shelf surface melt dynamics

Given that the polar regions, especially the Antarctic Peninsula, have experienced one of the largest temperature increases on Earth over the last few decades, an understanding of Antarctic climate has become more urgent. Ice shelves themselves are located at the intersection of the atmosphere, hydrosphere and the cryosphere—the air-ice-ocean boundary, and are sensitive to changes in any of these media. In addition to being particularly sensitive to changes in climate, ice shelves play an important role in controlling the flow of glaciers into the ocean, which has important implications for sea level changes. In a warming world, an increased understanding of how climate change is affecting Antarctic ice shelves is valuable for assessing vulnerable regions of the Antarctic that may be prone to further instability. This work focuses on determining the underlying climatic processes controlling energy and mass balance responsible for driving melting over ice shelves. A novel melt-magnitude retrieval method is presented that uses Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived near-IR reflectance coupled with ice surface temperature as a proxy for surface melt magnitude. This method has a higher spatial resolution than passive microwave melt detection, has the added benefit of retrieving melt magnitude rather than a binary melt occurrence or non-occurrence, but has a lower temporal resolution than either passive-microwave or microwave-scatterometry melt detection. This limitation is a result of the opacity of cloud cover to both visible and IR radiation, requiring more satellite overpasses to obtain spatially contiguous imagery. This work also examines several weather variables associated with a large-extent, long-duration surface melt event on the Ross Ice Shelf. It is shown that cloudy conditions coupled with increased sensible and latent heat flux to the surface were present during the event, and these conditions are consistent with those that induce surface melting. Finally, an analysis of co-occurring climate conditions and surface melting over a recent 15-year time period (1987-2002) is presented. This analysis examines surface melt extent in three regions: Ross Ice Shelf, Larsen Ice Shelf and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Region. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) are used to categorize weather patterns for each December and January day during the study period, and the average surface melt extent for each SOM pattern is computed. These values are compared to average December and January surface melt extents for each region to determine the SOM patterns associated with significantly greater or significantly less melt than the 15-year average. Over the Ross region, increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes are associated with greater surface melt extent, as is the presence of cyclonic circulation in the Ross Sea that drives mild maritime air poleward. In the Larsen and Amundsen-Bellingshausen regions, radiation fluxes appear to be more closely associated with surface melt extent, although the relationship for the geographically heterogeneous Amundsen-Bellingshausen region is less clear. These results can guide future mesoscale modeling studies that will be able to more precisely determine the causative role of each atmospheric variable in generating surface melting on West Antarctic ice shelves.