The politics of disasters, development and conflict: A case study of Trincomalee District, Sri Lanka following the 2004 tsunami

The purpose of this research was to advance scholarly research on disasters, development, and violent conflict by providing new insight into the interaction at a sub-national level. The research was designed and conducted according to one overarching question: Did the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami exacerbate conflict in the Eastern District of Trincomalee in Sri Lanka?;Natural disasters are increasing in frequency, scope, and consequence in developing countries. There is a mutually reinforcing relationship between natural disasters and violent conflict, both contributing to the setback of development gains. However, because there is very little research on this nexus in the developing world with an emphasis on violent conflict, it is challenging to assert with any level of certainty whether or not natural disasters have a positive, negative, or no impact on violent conflict in developing countries, not to mention whether or not disasters can actually be a catalyst for peace making or improved levels of development (i.e. building back better) or whether they are usually or always the cause of development setbacks and greater conflict. The results of the statistical analysis revealed that the tsunami did not have a significant impact on the worsening of the conflict in Trincomalee District. The pre-existence of conflict in 2004, before the tsunami, was the greater predictor of whether or not conflict remained the same, abated or worsened in 2006, following the tsunami regardless of how severely affected the area was by the 2004 tsunami. The one outstanding anomaly pertains to Muslim families in Trincomalee District, who in fact experienced less conflict in 2006 than in 2004 despite how severely they were affected by the tsunami disaster itself.