A complex human -environment systems approach for land change analysis: The case of land use change in eastern Massachusetts, USA

The incremental expansion of urban development into undeveloped areas represents one of the most significant human modifications of the Earth's surface over recent decades. Current approaches to human-environment interactions recognize that human and ecological systems must be addressed as coupled human-environment systems. This dissertation aims to understand the expansion of urban land uses in the densely inhabited temperate forest ecosystem of Eastern Massachusetts. The region is heavily affected by historic land use activities and by ongoing shifts associated with multiscalar social, institutional, and economic processes. The research explores three major dimensions of the coupled human-environment system: the interaction of biophysical and human factors in generating patterns of forest composition, the multi-scalar social processes which shape landscape transformation, and the capacity of social systems to respond to concerns regarding land transformation.;The first article examines the ability of species distribution modeling techniques to estimate distributions of forest canopy species using human land use and biophysical predictor variables. Particular attention is paid to the appropriateness of different statistical modeling approaches for estimating species distributions in this complex human-environment system.;The second article examines the role of macro scale social and institutional constraints in shaping land use patterns at the regional scale. It utilizes the regional selection environment framework developed in institutional and evolutionary economics to specify the social drivers of land use change, and it applies the framework to produce an aggregate model estimating the land change trajectories experienced by different municipalities over the last 15 years of the twentieth century.;The third paper examines changes in governance structures associated with the Smart Growth approach to land management. Using an in-depth case study approach, the paper explores state-local interactions related to land management and uses this analysis to draw conclusions regarding the role of the state in environmental governance and the ability of policy structures to adapt to sustainability concerns. Together, the papers aim to advance interdisciplinary approaches for analyzing complex human-environment systems.