| The electric power grid, oil and gas pipelines, railways and other critical infrastructures are viable military targets. Attacks on these systems disrupt communications, hinder logistical support, create confusion, and achieve psychological effects. The majority of systems that comprise critical infrastructures rely on control protocols to command, direct and monitor operations via cyberspace. For the first time in history, non-kinetic means can achieve direct kinetic effects that can result in the loss of human life. As such, formal analysis consistent with traditional munitions (e.g., artillery and bombs) is necessary if attack capabilities for military operations are to be realized.;This research presents a model for expressing attacks on control protocols that involve the exchange of messages. Attacks are modeled using the notion of an adversary who can block and/or fabricate messages. These two attack mechanisms cover a variety of scenarios ranging from control failures in the Waterloo Campaign to cyber attacks on oil pipelines. The model helps provide a comprehensive understanding of control system failures and attacks, which supports the development of strategies for attack as well as defense. Applications of the model include the identification of intelligence requirements, the articulation of possible outcomes of operations and the evaluation of the feasibility of attacks. The work provides a foundation for formalizing the use of cyberspace weaponry that is designed to create kinetic effects. |
