Predicting Reading and Mathematics Delaware State Testing Program performance using the Measures of Academic Progress

The purpose of this study was to determine how well the Northwest Evaluation Association's (NWEA) Measures of Academic Progress (MAP) Rasch Unit (RIT) scores predict fifth grade students' performance on the Reading and Mathematics Delaware State Testing Program (DSTP). To address the research questions, a non-experimental longitudinal predictive design was utilized. Data were collected from all fifth grade students in the Brandywine School District. A forward stepwise variable selection procedure of multiple regression was utilized to predict scores on the Reading and Mathematics DSTP assessments with the NWEA's Reading and Mathematics MAP RIT scores. Results suggest students' scores on the 2006 Fourth Grade Reading DSTP were the best predictor of fifth grade students' Reading DSTP scores (R2 = .62), while the Fall Mathematics MAP scores were the best predictor of fifth grade students' Mathematics DSTP scores (R2 = .75). When the 2006 Fourth Grade Reading DSTP scores were not included as independent variables, results indicated the Fall MAP RIT scores ( R2 = .54) were the best predictor of 2007 Fifth Grade Reading DSTP performance and the Fall MAP RIT scores (R 2 = .75) were the best predictor of 2007 Fifth Grade Mathematics DSTP performance. Moreover, results suggest the 2006 Fourth Grade Reading DSTP scores are the best predictor of Claymont (R2 = .63), Harlan (R2 = .59), and P. S. du Pont's (R2 = .68) fifth grade students' Reading DSTP performance as well as Claymont (R2 = .74), Harlan (R2 = .76), and P. S. du Pont's (R2 = .74) fifth grade Mathematics DSTP performance. When the 2006 Fourth Grade Reading DSTP scores were not included as an independent variable, results suggest the Fall MAP RIT scores were the best predictor of Claymont (R2 = .52), Harlan (R2 = .54), and P. S. du Pont's (R2 = .54) fifth grade students' Reading DSTP performance and Claymont (R2 = .74), Harlan (R2 = .77), and P. S. du Pont's ( R2 = .74) fifth grade students' Mathematics DSTP performance. One major limitation of this study is that data regarding low income status were not available. Future research on this topic should consider socioeconomic status.